German fiscal balance


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The fastest economic growth this decade in 2006, Merkel’s first full year in power, and in 2007 helped her administration to narrow the deficit. The economy expanded 2.9 percent in 2006 and 2.5 percent last year, helping cut cumulative public sector deficit to 37 billion euros and 400 million euros respectively.

Budget surpluses ran last year by Germany’s states and municipalities outweighed a federal deficit to create the country’s first balanced budget since 1969. European Union rules on taming budget deficits apply to the composite budget.

Fiscal policy got a lot tighter than I had realized. No wonder it’s coming down so hard.


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Re: Fed finally gets interest on reserves right


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(email exchange)

Yes, a very obvious move for anyone with any sense of logic.

Again, we see continued evidence that the higher ups do not understand their own monetary operations.

Some of the remaining issues:

The TAF should at a minimum be unlimited and offered at a fixed rate, and the collateral requirements can be expanded to any bank legal assets.

The Fed should get Congressional approval to expand their treasury lending facility and lend any security in unlimited quantities at an overnight rate at a small
spread below their target Fed funds rate.

The Fed should cut off the (unlimited) swap lines to foreign central banks before it’s too late.

>   
>   On Wed, Nov 5, 2008 at 11:43 PM, Scott wrote:
>   

Press Release

Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: November 5, 2008
For release at 10:00 a.m. EST

The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced that it will alter the formulas used to determine the interest rates paid to depository institutions on required reserve balances and excess reserve balances.

Previously, the rate on required reserve balances had been set at the average target federal funds rate established by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) over a reserves maintenance period minus 10 basis points. The rate on excess balances had been set as the lowest federal funds rate target in effect during a reserve maintenance period minus 35 basis points. Under the new formulas, the rate on required reserve balances will be set equal to the average target federal funds rate over the reserve maintenance period. The rate on excess balances will be set equal to the lowest FOMC target rate in effect during the reserve maintenance period. These changes will become effective for the maintenance periods beginning Thursday, November 6.

The Board judged that these changes would help foster trading in the funds market at rates closer to the FOMC’s target federal funds rate.


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Re: Letter to ABC


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Good letter!!!!

>   
>   On Wed, Nov 5, 2008 at 3:59 PM, Bill wrote:
>   
>   Dear ABC breakfast,
>   
>   Headlines like – 40 billion hole in the bucket – repeated by the breakfast
>   hosts today – merely perpetuate the myth that the Federal government
>   has a financial constraint. This myth has been used by the neo-liberal
>   agenda that is now in tatters as a result of the failure of markets to
>   self-regulate.
>   
>   
>   The reality is that the Federal G. as the monopoly issuer of the currency
>   has no financial constraint and does not require revenue to spend. In
>   fact, spending provides the funds to the private sector that we use to
>   fulfill our tax obligations.
>   
>   Further, the pursuit of budget surpluses has squeezed the liquidity of
>   the private sector and been an important part of the reason why that
>   sector is now so indebted. The natural state is for the federal
>   government to run deficits in order for the private sector to save. The
>   private sector cannot save if the government is running surpluses.
>   
>   Further, running surpluses (or deficits) in any one year makes no
>   difference to the capacity of the Federal G. to run a surplus (deficit) in
>   the next. The surpluses that have been adored by the neo-liberals and
>   by the sin of ignorance of your announcers have not built up any
>   capacity to allow spending to proceed now. There is no hole in the
>   bucket. There is no bucket!
>   
>   I have written a lot about this over the year. My recent book (see
>   details below) articulates this in detail. You can also read details of how
>   a modern monetary economy like Australia works from the many papers
>   available from my research centre.
>   
>   It would be good if you stopped perpetuating this myth and instead
>   allow reasonable commentary on what is actually going on with
>   government opportunities etc. It is time your listeners (and viewers)
>   learned how the economy actually operates and how they have been
>   dudded by fiscal surpluses over the last 11 years.
>   
>   Best wishes,
>   
>   Bill
>   


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2008-11-06 USER


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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 4.3%
Revised 3.6%

 
Better than expected but slipping a bit.

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (3Q P)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (3Q P)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 3.6%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -0.1%

 
Worse than expected but still reasonable.

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (3Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1)

Survey 477K
Actual 481K
Prior 479K
Revised 485K

 
About at recession levels.

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Continuing Claims (Oct 25)

Survey 3743K
Actual 3843K
Prior 3715K
Revised 3721K

 
Also looking like recession levels.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 1)

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims fall 4k to 481k, but prior week revised up 6k to 485k (4wk avg 477k)
    Real story is latest jump in continuing claims, from 3721k to 3843k (4wk avg 3754k)

  • Higher continuing claims tied to longer duration of unemployment and in turn lower wage pressures

  • Now look for payrolls to exceed -300k tomorrow; would be consistent with across the board weaker-than-expected data for past month.


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Re: Commentary


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>   
>   The banks using the ECB’s liquidity program deposited a record 160
>   billion Euros with the ECB overnight, rather than lend them to other
>   banks or market participants.
>   

Jeff, ‘lending them out’ wouldn’t have changed that number. At most it would have moved the funds from one bank’s reserve account to another. So maybe, they did ‘lend them out’. Best indication is the interbank rates, but even that’s not definitive.

>   
>   Russia is going to base missiles on EU border. That should go well. In
>   unrelated news, they are also planning to build a deep-water port in
>   Venezuela that will allow Russian warships to dock there. Hamas
>   militants pounded southern Israel today with a massive barrage of 35
>   rockets, after Israeli forces killed six gunmen. So much for the
>   five-month truce. China has so far sentenced 55 people for riots
>   against Beijing’s rule that broke out in Tibet in March. No word yet on
>   the other 147 people who stood trial. Iran has warned the US again
>   not to violate its airspace.
>   

Good luck to us!


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Re: France threatens to seize banks


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Yesterday’s news, but this kind of response is indicative of fear of a very large problem in the immediate future.

And forcing banks to lend to entities they don’t consider credit worthy only shifts private sector losses to the banks.

>   
>   On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Dave wrote:
>   

France threatens to seize banks, German bail-outs escalate

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The French state has threatened to seize control of the country’s banks and fire top staff unless they do their part to stabilise the economy by stepping up lending to companies in need.

“The banks have got to open up credit to business: they have the means to do it,” said prime minister Francois Fillon, accusing lenders of hoarding cash. “We don’t think the banks are stepping up to task as necessary. We can withdraw the credit that we have extended to them under the state’s contract with the banks, and that will put them in difficulty. At that moment the question arises whether we should take an equity stake, change their managers, and assume control over their strategy.”

Speaking on French television, he warned: “Broadly speaking, we’ll be able to judge over the next 10 days whether they are playing the game as they should, or not.”

Under last month’s rescue deal, banks agreed to raise lending to firms and households by 3pc to 4pc in exchange for a state injection of €10bn (£8bn) in fresh capital for the six largest banks, a modest sum compared to the bail-outs in Britain, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.

In Germany, HSH Nordbank – 59pc owned by the city of Hamburg and state of Schleswig-Holstein – rattled the markets yesterday by revealing that it would need €30bn in guarantees from Berlin’s €500bn stabilisation fund. It warned that further sums may be need`ed to meet capital adequacy ratios in the future.

“We are not under time pressure and will be holding in-depth discussions with our stockholders as to the strategy to pursue,” said Hans Berger, chief executive officer. The bank has had to write down €2.3bn over the last year, and suffered heavy losses from the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Commerzbank said it would seek a combined guarantee and capital boost of €23bn, while BayernLB will seek €5.4bn. The giant property lender Hypo Real Estate is the biggest casualty so far, needing €50bn.

In Austria, a mini-crisis continued to simmer yesterday as the state stepped in “with a few hundred million” to rescue Kommunalkredit, after the public lender said it was suffering a “liqudity squeeze”. Austria’s banks have heavy exposure to the debt crisis in Ukraine, Hungary and the Balkans.

Europe’s banks are almost twice as leveraged as those in the US, according to the IMF. Many pursued a very aggressive lending strategy during the credit bubble. They account for the lion’s share of cross-border loans to Latin America, Asia and the entire $1.6 trillion pool of loans to Eastern Europe. Matt King, credit strategist at Citigroup, says they have waited too long to face up to their losses and will need to raise $400bn in fresh capital in a hostile global climate.


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Consumer spending falling


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Consumer spending hit by crisis: MasterCard

By Nicole Maestri

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. consumers slashed spending in October, shunning purchases of items over $1,000, as a global financial crisis battered their savings accounts and their psyches, according to figures released on Wednesday by SpendingPulse, the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors.

“The numbers for October are very negative across the board,” said Michael McNamara, vice president at MasterCard Advisors, of sales figures tracked by SpendingPulse.

“Any area that deals with consumer durables, especially areas like furniture, electronics and appliances … that relies heavily on sales purchases that exceed $1,000 in value are under significant pressure,” he said.

SpendingPulse data is derived from aggregate sales in the MasterCard U.S. payment network, coupled with estimates on all other payments including cash and checks.


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Re: Steep yield curve


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>   
>   On Wed, Nov 5, 2008 at 7:06 AM, Morris wrote:
>   
>   COLLAPSE OF ST RATES HAS DONE SQUAT FOR LT RATES- so consumer
>   has gotten no benefit in trying to procure Long Term financing especially
>   in housing, where all mtge rates are near the high for the last 52 wks–
>   the spread between Fed Funds to Jumbo Mortgages is now 680bps–
>   has got to be a record… Great for spreads at banks…not great for
>   consumers..
>   

And banks are not allowed to take ‘gap’ risk so it doesn’t do much for them, either.

Short rates are down because of Fed funds cuts by the Fed and the unlimited lending internationally via the swap lines bringing down three month rates.

To bring long term rates down they need to stop issuing long term Treasury securities and buy back the stuff that’s outstanding. Treasury securities function as ‘interest rate support’ for their given maturity.

But even lower long term rates won’t do a lot when there is a shortage of aggregate demand because the budget deficit is too small.

And an unfriendly foreign monopolist setting crude prices can only be addressed by immediately cutting our consumption.

Warren

MOSLER’S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large increase in public spending cannot deal with it.
(as stated by Prof. James Galbraith)


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2008-11-05 USER


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -20.3%
Prior 16.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 260.90
Prior 303.10
Revised n/a

 
Down through the lows- looking like housing is taking a second leg down.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1075.40
Prior 1489.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 31)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 78.9%
Prior 32.6%
Revised n/a

 
Trending higher along with other employment indicators.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Oct)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Oct)

Survey 47.0
Actual 44.4
Prior 50.2
Revised n/a


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Opec output


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Not much demand destruction showing up here. Saudis set price and let quantity adjust to world demand. Can take a few months to show up due to the ‘supply chain’ that can expand and contract.

OPEC’s Oil Output fell 0.2% in October, Survey Shows

New York, Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) — Crude-oil production from the 13 OPEC
members in October declined 70,000 barrels a day from September, the latest
Bloomberg survey of producers, oil companies and industry analysts shows.
Figures are in the thousands of barrels a day.

Opec Production
October 2008

Opec Country October Est. Sept. Monthly Output Nov. 1 Change Est. vs. Target Est. Target Est. Cap. (@)
Algeria 1,400 1,400 0 1,286 114 1,450
Angola 1,875 1,800 75 1,801 74 2,000r
Ecuador 500 500 0 493 7 500
Indonesia* 850 865 -15 a’ a’ 900
Iran 3,900 3,950 -50 3,618 282 4,100
Iraq* 2,235 2,165r 70 2,500
Kuwait# 2,600 2,580r 20 2,399 201 2,650
Libya 1,750 1,720 30 1,623 127 1,800r
Nigeria 1,920 1,940r -20 2,050 -130 2,500r
Qatar 870 870r 0 785 85 900
Saudi Arabia# 9,350 9,450 -100 8,477 873 10,800
U.A.E 2,580 2,650 -70 2,433 147 2,800
Venezuela 2,350 2,360 -10 2,341 9 2,500
Total OPEC-13 32,180 32,250r -70 35,400r
Total OPEC-11* 29,095 29,220r -125 27,308 1,787 32,000r

*Quotas effective Nov. 1, 2008. OPEC agreed at its Oct. 24 meeting to cut
its quota target by 1.5 million barrels a day, to 27.308 million barrels
daily from Nov. 1. The new target excludes Iraq, which has no formal quota,
and Indonesia who leaves OPEC at year-end.


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