[Skip to the end]

Obama says drafting bold economic stimulus

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said Saturday that he was crafting an aggressive two-year stimulus plan to revive the troubled economy, warning that swift action was needed to prevent a deep slump and a spiral of falling prices.

Agreed!

“If we don’t act swiftly and boldly, most experts now believe that we could lose millions of jobs next year,” the Democratic president-elect said in a weekly radio address.

Agreed!

Obama, who succeeds President George W. Bush on Jan. 20, said the economy could get worse before it gets better. “We now risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further,” he said.

Obama said the plan would aim to save or create 2.5 million jobs by January 2011 and would be “big enough to meet the challenges we face.” Any additional jobs would offset what is expected to be a dismal employment picture in the near future.

I vote for ‘create’ and await clarity of what he means ‘boldly’.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

The worst of the ‘great repricing of risk’ that followed the discovery of the ‘great sub prime mortgage fraud’ could be behind us.

The aggregate demand from the expansion phase of the mortgage fraud episode caused output and growth to expand faster than it otherwise would have, and when that lending stopped and that source of aggregate demand was removed all was suddenly thrown into reverse- slowly at first as mainly housing reversed, and more recently with a rush as the Mike Masters commodity liquidation gave it all a final push down and even consumer lending dried up, as today’s Mastercard report reflects.

Not to mention the various blunders along the way by policy makers who continuously demonstrated a lack of a fundamental understanding of monetary operations. Seems with Citibank the government had learned something as they broke their pattern and didn’t take 79.9% of the equity.

This policy change itself serves to reduce systemic risk for the financial sector, as government assistance may no longer automatically mean the elimination of that much shareholder equity above and beyond ‘payback’ to the government.

The blowout ‘bottom’ for this cycle may have come in the credit products, where it all started,
rather than equities as had generally been the case in previous cycles.

• IG On-the-run Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
• IG6 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
• IG7 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
• IG8 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
• IG9 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)

IG On-the-run Spreads (Nov 24)

[top][end]

IG6 Spreads (Nov 24)

[top][end]

IG7 Spreads (Nov 24)

[top][end]

IG8 Spreads (Nov 24)

[top][end]

IG9 Spreads (Nov 24)

[top]

[Skip to the end]

• Existing Home Sales (Released 10:00 EST)
• Existing Home Sales MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
• Existing Home Sales YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
• Existing Home Sales Inventory (Released 10:00 EST)
• Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Released 10:00 EST)
• Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Released 10:00 EST)

Existing Home Sales (Oct)

 
Down a bit but not through the lows as foreclosure sales continue.

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales MoM (Oct)

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales YoY (Oct)

 
Down a bit but still off the lows as foreclosure sales continue.

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales Inventory (Oct)

 
Starting to make progress as actual inventories decline.

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Oct)

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Oct)

[top]

[Skip to the end]

More likely to be higher than expected as the economy deteriorates and credit markets remain problematic.

German Budget Squeezed as Crisis Hurts Revenue, Forces Outlays

By Brian Parkin

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government faces revenue shortfalls this year and will have to expand net borrowing in 2009 as the worst economic recession in at least 12 years takes its toll on the budget. Lawmakers meeting in Berlin overnight authorized next year’s net federal borrowing to rise to 18.5 bln euros ($23 bln) from the 10.5 bln euros forecast mid-year, the first increase since Merkel came to office exactly three years ago. The Finance Ministry also said today that the government may raise less money than planned from asset sales this year. “This is very clearly to do with the global financial situation,” Carsten Schneider, budget spokesman for the Social Democrats, coalition partners to Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, said at a press conference in Berlin. “We are in very difficult economic times.” The government has tried to stem debt growth as the budget expands to pay for emergency programs ranging from tax relief on new low-emission cars to bigger subsidies for energy efficient buildings. Some economists have said that net borrowing may increase further as the recession deepens. “All signs point to a hard economic year for Germany, and this plays out on the budget,” Stefan Bielmeier, an economist with Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt, said in a Nov. 19 interview. Even so, Germany “may be getting off relatively lightly if it can keep the deficit that low.”

[top]

[Skip to the end]

(email exchange)

Thanks!

>   
>   On Fri, Nov 21, 2008 at 10:26 AM, wrote:
>   
>   Why don’t people get their facts straight? Blind ideology divorced from >   facts was the basis of the last 8 years! When are we going to learn?
>   
>   From Felix Salmon (Professor Zhen should see this as well):
>   

The return of the 70 per hour meme

You might expect it from right-leaning commentators like Will Wilkinson. You wouldn’t expect it from someone like Mark Perry, who lives in Flint, Michigan. And you certainly wouldn’t expect to see it in the New York Times, from the likes of Andrew Ross Sorkin. But all of them are perpetuating the meme that the average GM worker costs more than $70 an hour, once you include health and pension costs.

It’s not true.

The average GM assembly-line worker makes about $28 per hour in wages, and I can assure you that GM is not paying $42 an hour in health insurance and pension plan contributions. Rather, the $70 per hour figure (or $73 an hour, or whatever) is a ridiculous number obtained by adding up GM’s total labor, health, and pension costs, and then dividing by the total number of hours worked. In other words, it includes all the healthcare and retirement costs of retired workers.

Now that GM’s healthcare obligations are being moved to a UAW-run trust, even that fictitious number is going to fall sharply. But anybody who uses it as a rhetorical device suggesting that US car companies are run inefficiently is being disingenuous. As of 2007, the UAW represented 180,681 members at Chrysler, Ford and General Motors; it also represented 419,621 retired members and 120,723 surviving spouses. If you take the costs associated with 721,025 individuals and then divide those costs by the hours worked by 180,681 individuals, you’re going to end up with a very large hourly rate. But it won’t mean anything, unless you’re trying to be deceptive.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

The FOMC doesn’t seem to treat the swap lines any differently than the domestic lending arrangements:

In view of a further widening in financial market strains internationally, the Committee considered proposals to establish temporary reciprocal currency (“swap”) arrangements with several additional foreign central banks. Members unanimously approved the following resolution, which effectively permitted the Foreign Currency Subcommittee to establish a swap line with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

“The FOMC amends paragraph 1.A. of the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations to include the New Zealand dollar in the list of foreign currencies in which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York may transact for the System Open Market Account.”

Meeting participants also discussed a proposal to set up temporary liquidity-related swap arrangements with the central banks of Mexico, Brazil, Korea, and Singapore. In their remarks, participants focused on the outlook for complementarity between these swaps and the new short-term liquidity facility that the International Monetary Fund was considering; on the governance and structure of the swap lines; and on the particular countries included. Several participants pointed to the international reserves held by the countries and the importance of ensuring that these temporary swap lines, like the others that had been established during this period, be used only for the purposes intended. On balance, the Committee concluded that in current circumstances the swap arrangements with these four large and systemically important economies were appropriate, and it unanimously approved the following resolutions.

“The FOMC directs the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to establish and maintain a reciprocal currency arrangement (“swap arrangement”) for the System Open Market Account with each of (i) the Banco Central do Brasil, (ii) the Bank of Korea, (ii) the Banco de Mexico, and (iv) the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Each such swap arrangement would be for an aggregate amount not to exceed $30 billion. Drawings under the arrangement require approval. Unless extended by the Committee, each such swap arrangement shall expire on April 30, 2009.

The FOMC amends paragraph 1.A. of the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations to include the Brazilian real, the Korean won, and the Singapore dollar in the list of foreign currencies in which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York may transact for the System Open Market Account.

The FOMC delegates to the Foreign Currency Subcommittee the authority to approve individual drawing requests of up to $5 billion under each of the aforementioned swap arrangements with the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.”

In addition, to address the sizable demand for dollar funding in foreign jurisdictions, the FOMC authorized the expansion of its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank; by the end of the intermeeting period, the formal quantity limits on these lines had been eliminated. The quantity limits were also lifted on new swap lines set up with the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. The FOMC authorized new swap lines with five other central banks during the period. In domestic markets, the Federal Reserve raised the regular auction amounts of the 28- and 84-day maturity Term Auction Facility (TAF) auctions to $150 billion each. Also, the Federal Reserve announced two forward TAF auctions for $150 billion each, to be conducted in November to provide funding over year-end. In total, up to $900 billion of TAF credit over year-end was authorized.

Despite the substantial provision of liquidity by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, functioning in many credit markets remained very poor, a situation that reflected market participants’ uncertainty about their liquidity needs and their future access to funding as well as concerns about the health of many financial institutions. To strengthen confidence in U.S. financial institutions, the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a joint statement on October 14, which included several elements. First, the Treasury announced a voluntary capital purchase plan under which eligible financial institutions could sell preferred shares to the U.S. government. Second, the FDIC provided a temporary guarantee of the senior unsecured debt of all FDIC-insured institutions and their holding companies, as well as all balances in non-interest-bearing transaction deposit accounts. The statement included notice that nine major financial institutions had agreed to participate in both the capital purchase program and the FDIC guarantee program. Third, the Federal Reserve announced details of the CPFF, which was scheduled to begin on October 27. After this joint statement and the announcements of similar programs in a number of other countries, financial market pressures appeared to ease somewhat, though conditions remained strained.

The expansion of existing liquidity facilities as well as the creation of new facilities contributed to a notable increase in the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. The amount of primary credit outstanding rose considerably over the intermeeting period, with both foreign and domestic depository institutions making use of the discount window. TAF credit outstanding more than doubled over the period. Credit extended through the Primary Dealer Credit Facility rose rapidly ahead of quarter-end; although it subsided subsequently, the amount of credit outstanding remained well above the levels seen before mid-September. The Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) auctions conducted over the intermeeting period had very high demand; in addition, dealers exercised most of the options for TSLF loans spanning the September quarter-end.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

This is highly constructive if we increase aggregate demand from the bottom up-

Infrastructure revenue sharing, support of higher education, expanded basic research grants, offering federally funded $8 per hour jobs to anyone willing and able to work, payroll tax holiday, etc.

In sufficient size to restore output and employment in the remaining sectors.

I would not move to support the financial sector elements that mainly function as a brain drain from the real sectors.

The relatively ‘simple’ banking model of the almost distant past employed a moderately paid financial sector of moderate size that was more than sufficient to support relatively high levels of output and employment. For example, housing starts exceeded 2.5 million per year in the early 70′s with a population of about 215 million.

Financial Job Losses May Double to 350,000 by 2009 (Update1)

By Philip Lagerkranser

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) — The bloodletting in the financial- services industry will accelerate in coming months, with job cuts doubling to about 350,000 worldwide by mid-2009, said Brian Sullivan, chief executive officer of search firm CTPartners.

Reductions on that scale would be equivalent to 20 percent of the global workforce at financial companies before the credit crisis began, said Sullivan, whose firm has worked with Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Banks, brokerages and funds have eliminated about 170,000 positions worldwide.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

Good news-

The Fed line item believed to be the swap line advances fell a bit to 608 billion from 615 billion the week before.

Not sure, for example, if they are valuing the dollars extended to the ECB or the euros held by the Fed as collateral.

The lines are set to expire in April.

And no way to tell whether the foreign $ borrowing is to fund $ assets already on their books, or whether they are funding beyond that.

The swap lines take some pressure off the process of covering dollar losses by selling local currencies to buy dollars to cover dollar losses.

This helps support, for example, the euro vs the dollar.

However, uncovered dollar losses grow with any depreciation of the local currency, so that risk remains until the currency aspect of the losses are ‘covered.’
This is still completely off the Congressional radar screen.

No one even asked why the Fed would loan over 600 billion to foreign central banks which can be used to support their auto industry at our expense.

And no one indicated that what the autos need most are buyers who can afford the new cars.

A payroll tax holiday would give the automakers and financial sector what they need most- consumers who can afford to make their payments.

(And how about those Democrats critical of companies paying high wages- time have changed!!!)

(Also, Congress could change tax laws to the point of eliminating corp. travel by private jet if they wanted to. Instead they give tax advantages and then
are critical of their utilization. But that’s another story…)

[top]

[Skip to the end]

Automatic stabilizers at work. Deficit still far too low at $500 billion, which is about 3.5% of GDP.

• Non TARP Fiscal Balance (Released EST)

Non TARP Fiscal Balance ()

[top]

[Skip to the end]

This means the deficit will rise via the automatic stabilizers only- falling tax receipts and higher transfer payments, and the economy will get that much worse to get the deficit to where it needs to go to reverse the economic decline.

Given the proactive fiscal responses from the rest of the world, this will likely mean Germany will have to wait for exports to pick up to a world economy that recovers ahead of them.

It also means systemic risk pressures for the eurozone continue to increase:

Berlin rejects spending its way out of recession

“We had an 11 per cent savings rate. Now it’s risen to 13 per cent,” says a chancellery official.

“Given the current uncertainty, you can expect any additional income to go straight into higher savings.” Another argument, mentioned by Peer Steinbrück, finance minister, is that while a fiscal boost could help Germany, Europe’s largest economy is so big it would have to be large enough to be beyond the reach of Berlin’s public coffers. This is why the government has favoured what it calls “leverage” measures: limited subsidies and incentives designed to trigger a disproportionate rise in investments and consumption, such as more generous amortisation rules or a temporary lifting of the car tax.

The package of 15 growth-boosting measures adopted by the cabinet two weeks ago may only be worth €12bn (£10bn, $15bn) over two years but the government expects it to generate €50bn in investments and consumption over the same period.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

The combination of ‘automatic stabilizers’ and proactive fiscal will reverse the downturn in the UK.

Unfortunately they waited too long for the proactive adjustment so they are suffering with the forces that drive the automatic stabilizers-

Falling revenues and rising transfer payments:

U.K. Budget Deficit Widens as Recession Saps Taxes

By Jennifer Ryan

The U.K. budget deficit widened as the gathering recession pounded tax receipts, and analysts warned of worse to come as the economic slump deepens. The 37 bln-pound shortfall ($55 bln) in the first seven months of the fiscal year was the largest since records began in 1993, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The deficit in October was 1.38 bln pounds, the first shortfall for the month since 1994 and more than triple the 400 million pounds forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is planning a package of tax cuts and infrastructure projects to limit the recession, forecast by the Bank of England to extend well into 2009. Tax increases or spending restraint will eventually be needed to bring down the level of borrowing, economists say.

“The likelihood is that the deficit will continue to escalate,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities in London. “Patching up the public finances is going to be very, very hard work.”

Little more than half way through the fiscal year, the shortfall through October is just short of the 43 bln pounds forecast by Darling in March for the full fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2009. In the same seven months last year, the deficit was 20.1 bln pounds. Darling will use his annual pre-budget report to Parliament on Nov. 24 to revise his economic forecasts. Economists in a Treasury survey this month predicted the deficit will reach 65 bln pounds this fiscal year and almost 90 bln pounds next year, or 6 % of national income, the most since 1995.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

(email exchange)

Hope Obama doesn’t listen to any of that stuff!

>   
>   On Wed, Nov 19, 2008 at 5:42 PM, Scott wrote:
>   
>   Obama picks Orszag, who has written on the dangers of rising deficits
>   for interest rates, and on the government’s fiscal “gap” into the infinite
>   horizon, to head OMB.
>   
>   ”Peter Orszag, the head of the Congressional Budget Office, was picked
>   to head Obama’s Office of Management and Budget, a top Democratic
>   source told CNN on Tuesday. Orszag worked at the Clinton White
>   House as special assistant to the president at the National Economic
>   Council and served on the Council of Economic Advisers.”
>   

[top]

[Skip to the end]

• Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
• Continuing Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
• Jobless Claims ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
• Philadelphia Fed (Released 10:00 EST)
• Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Released 10:00 EST)
• Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Released 10:00 EST)
• Leading Indicators (Released 10:00 EST)
• Leading Indicators ALLX (Released 10:00 EST)

Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)

 
Bad!

[top][end]

Continuing Claims (Nov 8)

 
Bad!

[top][end]

Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 15)

[top][end]

Philadelphia Fed (Nov)

 
Deep into recession levels.

[top][end]

Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Nov)

[top][end]

Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Nov)

[top][end]

Leading Indicators (Oct)

 
Keeps heading lower.

[top][end]

Leading Indicators ALLX (Oct)

[top]

[Skip to the end]

1. Effective immediately have the Tsy make all FICA payments on behalf of employees and employers. Leave this arrangement in place at least until it is deemed that the economy is growing too rapidly.
   
   These payroll taxes currently reduce income by about $1 trillion per year for employees and employers and are highly regressive.
   
   Removing these payroll deductions will immediately add about $20 billion per week of ‘spending power’ to the economy on an ongoing basis, and all the funds benefit workers and businesses.
2. Effective immediately distribute $100 billion in unrestricted federal revenue sharing to the states on a per capita basis.
3. Make another $200 billion of federal revenue sharing available to the states for general infrastructure repairs and projects.
   
   This will effectively increase take home pay, remove a cash drain on business, address infrastructure needs, and support employment and income in general.
   
   What Wall St. and Main St. need most are consumers who have the funds to make their mortgage payments and car payments, and be able to buy what the US can produce.
   
   This ‘bottom up’ approach will work, while the current ‘top down’ proposals may eventually show results but will take far longer to reverse the current slowdown.
   
   And while my proposals will result in an immediate recovery, they do not address the energy issue.
   
   Any recovery will drive up energy prices if consumption is not first reduced by both the private and public sectors.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

Still looks to me the call on OPEC crude will be about the same:

CGES: Global oil demand to contract in 2009

CGES,The Centre for Global Energy Studies a leading energy forecasting organization said on Tuesday on its monthly oil report that Global oil demand
is likely to contract in 2009 for the first time in 25 years.

CGES said demand growth in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East can no longer offset the continuing decline in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries.

In a report, the consultancy said consumers are still responding to recent high pump prices, and a loss of confidence in employment and income prospects means even a lower price won’t halt the decline in demand.

CGES also said the recent slide in oil prices won’t end until the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries implements its recent 1.5 million barrels a day cut in output, or higher cost non-OPEC production is shut-in.

CGES said its demand pessimism is “offset to a degree” by its view of non-OPEC supply, which is “unlikely to show any real growth in either 2008 or 2009.”

[top]

[Skip to the end]

Russian Central Bank Spent $58 Billion Backing Ruble (Update1)

By Alex Nicholson and Maria Levitov

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) — Russia’s central bank spent $57.5 billion defending the ruble in September and October, Chairman Sergey Ignatiev said.

Why would they ‘defend’ the ruble? Maybe they ‘defend’ it selectively, via transactions with ‘insiders’ moving from rubles to dollars?

Russia held 45 percent of its reserves in U.S. dollars, 44 percent in euros, 10 percent in pounds and about 1 percent in yen on Nov. 1, Ignatiev, said in the lower house of parliament in Moscow today.

“Russia ensures the stability of its currency, given the fundamental indicators of our economy,” Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told lawmakers today. The amount of reserves ensures “a firm foundation for macroeconomic stability, for stability of the national currency,” he added.

Looks like I’m wrong on suspecting insider conversion. Sorry!!!

Russia’s international reserves stood at $475.4 billion as of Nov. 7, the third-biggest after China’s and Japan’s. They have fallen $122.7 billion since Aug. 8 as the central bank shored up the ruble. The bank buys and sells currency to keep it within a trading band against a dollar-euro basket to limit the impact of exchange-rate fluctuations on the economy.

Right, that’s the reason…

Ignatiev also said that the central bank reduced its holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, which are held by Russian oil funds that are part of the reserves, to $20.9 billion on Nov. 1 from $65.6 billion on Jan. 1.

Explains some of the spread widening.

Fannie and Freddie were “taken under state control” in the U.S. in September, guaranteeing their reliability, Ignatiev said. The bank isn’t currently selling bonds of the two U.S. mortgage- finance companies, he said.

Right, not even if an insider wants to buy them with rubles.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

Bernanke’s Cash Injections Risk Eclipse of Fed’s Benchmark Rate

By Craig Torres

Bernanke said in a congressional hearing yesterday that the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet “makes it more difficult to control the federal funds rate.” It is “still an issue we are working on,” he told the House Financial Services Committee.

How about the Fed trading Fed funds and making a 1 basis point market in Fed funds. Yes, that would mean lending to Fed member banks without specific collateral, but Fed collateral demands are redundant, as other government agencies- FDIC, OCC, etc- are already responsible for monitoring all bank assets and capital, and presumably close down any and all insolvent banks.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

(email exchange)

Right, add CATO to the list of organizations that have no credibility and now put the Dallas Fed on the suspect list as well. The difference between now and 1929 is back then we were on the gold standard he proposes, and therefore didn’t have the option for the Treasury to deficit spend without the loss of the nation’s gold reserves and devaluation/default as we ran out of gold. This also subjected the banks to true systemic failure as customers demanding their funds were entitled to convertible currency, which was limited by the same gold reserves. That’s exactly what happened as multitudes of banks failed, depositors lost their money, and the US both devalued for international purposes and was forced off gold domestically by 1934.

Since then, ‘automatic stabilizers’ (deficits counter cyclically ‘automatically’ rise in down turns and fall in expansions) and some proactive fiscal responses have resulted in much milder downturns and also have limited expansions.

The gold standard wasn’t abandoned because it worked so well- rather, because it has always gone down in flames:

To Prevent Bubbles, Restrain the Fed

By Gerald P. O’Driscoll

The incoming administration must think about that possibility because the timing of boom and bust cycles seems to be shortening. The next bust could come five or six years from now — or about in the middle of an Obama second term. Should that happen, Mr. Obama would be unable to blame Republicans for the mess and would be tagged as the second coming of Jimmy Carter.

To avoid such a fate, Mr. Obama needs to stop the next asset bubble from being inflated by imposing a commodity standard on the Fed. A commodity standard (such as a gold standard) imposes discipline on a central bank because it forces it to acquire commodity reserves in order to increase the money supply. Today the government can inflate asset bubbles without paying a cost for it because the currency isn’t linked to the price of a commodity.

With a commodity standard in place, the government would also have price signals that would alert it to the formation of a bubble. Why? Because the price of the commodity would be continuously traded in spot and futures markets. Excessive easing by the Fed would be signaled by rising prices for the commodity. In recent years, Fed officials have claimed that they cannot know when an asset bubble is developing. With a commodity standard in place, it would be clear to anyone watching spot markets whether a bubble is forming. What’s more, if Fed officials ignored price signals, outflows of commodity reserves would force them to act against the bubble.

The point is not to deflate asset bubbles, but to avoid them in the first place. Imposing a commodity standard is a practical response to the repeated failures of central banks to maintain sound money and financial stability. What would be impractical is to believe that the next time central banks will get it right on their own.

Mr. O’Driscoll, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, was formerly a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

>   
>   On Tue, Nov 18, 2008 at 10:27 PM, Ron wrote:
>   
>   Warren,
>   
>   I know you’ll love this one.
>   
>   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122688652214032407.html
>   

[top]

[Skip to the end]

• MBA Mortgage Applications (Released 7:00 EST)
• MBA Purchasing Applications (Released 7:00 EST)
• MBA Refinancing Applications (Released 7:00 EST)
• Consumer Price Index MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
• CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
• Consumer Price Index YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
• CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
• CPI Core Index SA (Released 8:30 EST)
• Consumer Price Index NSA (Released 8:30 EST)
• Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Released 8:30 EST)
• Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
• Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Released 8:30 EST)
• Housing Starts (Released 8:30 EST)
• Building Permits (Released 8:30 EST)

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 14)

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 14)

 
Back down big time.

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 14)

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index MoM (Oct)

 
Not much of a surprise led by gasoline prices. More to come.

[top][end]

CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Oct)

 
Lower than expected. Owner equivalent remains positive at up 0.1%.

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index YoY (Oct)

 
Coming down quickly with the fall in gasoline prices, much like Aug 06 when Goldman changed their commodity index and triggered a liquidation of gasoline inventories.

Karim writes:

[top][end]

CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Oct)

 
Also moving down.

[top][end]

CPI Core Index SA (Oct)

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index NSA (Oct)

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Oct)

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Oct)

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Oct)

[top][end]

Housing Starts (Oct)

 
Looking grim again after showing signs of bottoming.

Karim writes:

[top][end]

Building Permits (Oct)

[top]

[Skip to the end]

This is not a good sign given their monetary arrangements with no federal fiscal authority to incur the corresponding budget deficits, public and private.

And the unlimited Fed swap lines to the ECB could now be further increasing eurozone foreign currency debt, and funding imports with fresh ‘cheap and easy’ dollar debt.

Euro-zone trade deficit swells in September

Euro-zone trade deficit swells in September (AP) – The euro-zone swung to a trade deficit of 5.6 billion euros ($7.1 billion) in September from a 2.9 billion euro surplus last year. Imports surged 16 %in September from a year ago. Exports grew just 9 percent. The euro-zone trade deficit for the year to date — from January to August — now stands at 29.6 billion euros ($37.52 billion). Euro exports to the United States dropped 5 %from January to August from a year ago, Eurostat said. And exports to the currency area’s biggest customer, Britain, did not grow at all for the first eight months of the year. Imports from Russia climbed by a quarter over the same timeframe. Eurostat revised down its August trade figures, saying total euro-zone exports dropped 3 %during the month from a year ago. It originally reported a first estimate of 2 percent. Imports in August also grew less than expected — at 6 %instead of 7 percent.

[top]