Daily Archives: November 7, 2008 @ 3:59 pm (Friday)

GM bailout

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Seems to me GM and the banks need the same thing: people who have sufficient income to buy cars and make mortgage payments.

In general, direct public spending is for public goods: military, legal system, various infrastructure, etc.

To support private sector output the way to go is to support demand, and let consumers decide which products succeed and which don’t.

If government had declared a payroll tax holiday (treasury makes the fica payments for employees and for the business) three months ago, car sales would be up and mortgage delinquencies down.

And don’t forget to toss in something that reduces fuel consumption sustain our real terms of trade.


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Econ transition team

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Looks like payback for political help, not ‘change’:

Members of the Transition Economic Advisory Board:

  • David Bonior (Democratic member of the House of Representatives, 1977-2003)
  • Warren Buffett (chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway)
  • Roel Campos (former commissioner at the Securities and Exchange Commission)
  • William Daley (chairman of the Midwest, JPMorgan Chase; former secretary, U.S. Dept of Commerce, 1997-2000)
  • William Donaldson (former chairman of the SEC, 2003-2005)
  • Roger Ferguson (president and CEO, TIAA-CREF and former vice chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)
  • Jennifer Granholm (governor, state of Michigan)
  • Anne Mulcahy (chairman and CEO, Xerox)
  • Richard Parsons (chairman of the board, Time Warner)
  • Penny Pritzker (CEO, Classic Residence by Hyatt)
  • Robert Reich (professor, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley; former secretary, U.S. Dept of Labor, 1993-1997)
  • Robert Rubin (chairman and director of the executive committee, Citigroup; former secretary, U.S. Department of Treasury, 1995-1999)
  • Eric Schmidt (chairman and CEO, Google)
  • Lawrence Summers (managing director, D.E. Shaw; former president of Harvard University; former secretary, U.S. Department of Treasury, 1999-2001)
  • Laura Tyson (professor, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley; former chairwoman, National Economic Council, 1995-1996; former chairwoman, President’s Council of Economic Advisors, 1993-1995)
  • Antonio Villaraigosa (mayor, city of Los Angeles)
  • Paul Volcker (former chairman, U.S. Federal Reserve 1979-1987)


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Fed swap line advances up to 573.9 billion

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Bad news, the Feds outstanding (unlimited) swap line draws were up $27.9 billion to $573.9 from last week’s report.

That’s a larger increase than the approximately 24 billion increase the week before.

This is not good.

Each increase gets us closer to the day when the Fed says ‘no mas’.

Causing the euro’s decline to accelerate as the eurozone faces collapse.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/


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2008-11-07 USER

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

Survey -200K
Actual -240K
Prior -159K
Revised -284K

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -1078.00
Prior -698.00
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Oct)

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Unemployment Rate (Oct)

Survey 6.3%
Actual 6.5%
Prior 6.1%
Revised n/a

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Oct)

Survey -65K
Actual -90K
Prior -51K
Revised -56K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.8%
Prior -3.2%
Revised n/a

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Manufacturing Payrolls ALLX (Oct)

 
Karim writes:

Payrolls:

Worse than expected (but that was expected)

  • -240k; unemployment rate rises from 6.1% to 6.5%

  • Net revisions -179k (Sep revised from -159k to -284k)

  • Hours continue to shrink -0.3% m/m and -2.6% annualized over past 3mths

  • Avg hourly earnings 0.2%

  • Avg duration of unemployment jumps from 18.4weeks to 19.7

  • Diffusion index falls from 38.1 to 37.6

By industry:

  • Mfg -90k

  • Construction -49k

  • Retail -38k

  • Finance -24k

  • Temp -34k

  • Education 21k

  • Govt 23k

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Average Weekly Hours (Oct)

Survey 33.6
Actual 33.6
Prior 33.6
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.3%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.6%

 
Falling?

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.7%
Prior 10.9%
Revised n/a

 
Past the peak?

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Sep)

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Pending Home Sales (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 89.2
Prior 93.5
Revised n/a

 
Still a mini trend higher.

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Sep)

Survey -3.4%
Actual -4.6%
Prior 7.4%
Revised 7.5%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.7%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

 
Not bad! probably lots of foreclosure sales.


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