Re: Commentary


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>   
>   The banks using the ECB’s liquidity program deposited a record 160
>   billion Euros with the ECB overnight, rather than lend them to other
>   banks or market participants.
>   

Jeff, ‘lending them out’ wouldn’t have changed that number. At most it would have moved the funds from one bank’s reserve account to another. So maybe, they did ‘lend them out’. Best indication is the interbank rates, but even that’s not definitive.

>   
>   Russia is going to base missiles on EU border. That should go well. In
>   unrelated news, they are also planning to build a deep-water port in
>   Venezuela that will allow Russian warships to dock there. Hamas
>   militants pounded southern Israel today with a massive barrage of 35
>   rockets, after Israeli forces killed six gunmen. So much for the
>   five-month truce. China has so far sentenced 55 people for riots
>   against Beijing’s rule that broke out in Tibet in March. No word yet on
>   the other 147 people who stood trial. Iran has warned the US again
>   not to violate its airspace.
>   

Good luck to us!


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Re: France threatens to seize banks


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Yesterday’s news, but this kind of response is indicative of fear of a very large problem in the immediate future.

And forcing banks to lend to entities they don’t consider credit worthy only shifts private sector losses to the banks.

>   
>   On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Dave wrote:
>   

France threatens to seize banks, German bail-outs escalate

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The French state has threatened to seize control of the country’s banks and fire top staff unless they do their part to stabilise the economy by stepping up lending to companies in need.

“The banks have got to open up credit to business: they have the means to do it,” said prime minister Francois Fillon, accusing lenders of hoarding cash. “We don’t think the banks are stepping up to task as necessary. We can withdraw the credit that we have extended to them under the state’s contract with the banks, and that will put them in difficulty. At that moment the question arises whether we should take an equity stake, change their managers, and assume control over their strategy.”

Speaking on French television, he warned: “Broadly speaking, we’ll be able to judge over the next 10 days whether they are playing the game as they should, or not.”

Under last month’s rescue deal, banks agreed to raise lending to firms and households by 3pc to 4pc in exchange for a state injection of €10bn (£8bn) in fresh capital for the six largest banks, a modest sum compared to the bail-outs in Britain, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.

In Germany, HSH Nordbank – 59pc owned by the city of Hamburg and state of Schleswig-Holstein – rattled the markets yesterday by revealing that it would need €30bn in guarantees from Berlin’s €500bn stabilisation fund. It warned that further sums may be need`ed to meet capital adequacy ratios in the future.

“We are not under time pressure and will be holding in-depth discussions with our stockholders as to the strategy to pursue,” said Hans Berger, chief executive officer. The bank has had to write down €2.3bn over the last year, and suffered heavy losses from the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Commerzbank said it would seek a combined guarantee and capital boost of €23bn, while BayernLB will seek €5.4bn. The giant property lender Hypo Real Estate is the biggest casualty so far, needing €50bn.

In Austria, a mini-crisis continued to simmer yesterday as the state stepped in “with a few hundred million” to rescue Kommunalkredit, after the public lender said it was suffering a “liqudity squeeze”. Austria’s banks have heavy exposure to the debt crisis in Ukraine, Hungary and the Balkans.

Europe’s banks are almost twice as leveraged as those in the US, according to the IMF. Many pursued a very aggressive lending strategy during the credit bubble. They account for the lion’s share of cross-border loans to Latin America, Asia and the entire $1.6 trillion pool of loans to Eastern Europe. Matt King, credit strategist at Citigroup, says they have waited too long to face up to their losses and will need to raise $400bn in fresh capital in a hostile global climate.


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Consumer spending falling


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Consumer spending hit by crisis: MasterCard

By Nicole Maestri

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. consumers slashed spending in October, shunning purchases of items over $1,000, as a global financial crisis battered their savings accounts and their psyches, according to figures released on Wednesday by SpendingPulse, the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors.

“The numbers for October are very negative across the board,” said Michael McNamara, vice president at MasterCard Advisors, of sales figures tracked by SpendingPulse.

“Any area that deals with consumer durables, especially areas like furniture, electronics and appliances … that relies heavily on sales purchases that exceed $1,000 in value are under significant pressure,” he said.

SpendingPulse data is derived from aggregate sales in the MasterCard U.S. payment network, coupled with estimates on all other payments including cash and checks.


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Re: Steep yield curve


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>   
>   On Wed, Nov 5, 2008 at 7:06 AM, Morris wrote:
>   
>   COLLAPSE OF ST RATES HAS DONE SQUAT FOR LT RATES- so consumer
>   has gotten no benefit in trying to procure Long Term financing especially
>   in housing, where all mtge rates are near the high for the last 52 wks–
>   the spread between Fed Funds to Jumbo Mortgages is now 680bps–
>   has got to be a record… Great for spreads at banks…not great for
>   consumers..
>   

And banks are not allowed to take ‘gap’ risk so it doesn’t do much for them, either.

Short rates are down because of Fed funds cuts by the Fed and the unlimited lending internationally via the swap lines bringing down three month rates.

To bring long term rates down they need to stop issuing long term Treasury securities and buy back the stuff that’s outstanding. Treasury securities function as ‘interest rate support’ for their given maturity.

But even lower long term rates won’t do a lot when there is a shortage of aggregate demand because the budget deficit is too small.

And an unfriendly foreign monopolist setting crude prices can only be addressed by immediately cutting our consumption.

Warren

MOSLER’S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large increase in public spending cannot deal with it.
(as stated by Prof. James Galbraith)


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2008-11-05 USER


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -20.3%
Prior 16.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 260.90
Prior 303.10
Revised n/a

 
Down through the lows- looking like housing is taking a second leg down.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1075.40
Prior 1489.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 31)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 78.9%
Prior 32.6%
Revised n/a

 
Trending higher along with other employment indicators.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Oct)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Oct)

Survey 47.0
Actual 44.4
Prior 50.2
Revised n/a


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