Can the euro payments system last the week?

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Euro equities and banks are now under attack, and the ECB is effectively borrowing hundreds of billions USD from the Fed via swap lines. The eurozone deposit insurance is by the national governments, not the ECN, which are credit constrained.

National government euro bonds have been supported by various CB/monetary authority allocations that are slowing with slowing net exports.

A major bank failure becomes infinitely more problematic in the eurozone than in the US, Japan, or UK, all who have deposit insurance at the ‘federal’ level.

The risk in the eurozone is the payments system completely shuts down, and re opens only when the ECB is allowed to conduct what amounts to fiscal transfers.

In a crunch, USD borrowings will need to be serviced from selling euros to buy USD and result in a sharply falling euro.

Yields on the national government bonds will move sharply higher due to credit concerns, as will credit default premiums in general.

For 10 years the euro ‘system’ has functioned reasonably well on the way up.

The systemic risk is only on the way down. And once in motion, it will unwind very quickly.

Protect yourself by not having any euro deposits, buying out of the money puts on the national government bonds and out of the money puts on the euro.

And then hope you lose those bets!


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