2008-09-16 USER

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.6
Prior -0.1
Revised n/a

 
Not a good sign, but partially seasonal (see year over year below). Shoppers getting scared by the financial sector again?

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.30
Prior 1.90
Revised n/a

 
Down a bit, but still positive.

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Redbook MoM (Sep 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.10
Prior -0.8
Revised n/a

 
Same, down some but somewhat seasonal (see year over year).

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Sep 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.40
Prior 1.80
Revised n/a

 
Down some but still positive and off the bottom.

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ICSC-Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 16)

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

 
Down only a tenth even with the big drop in commodities.

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

 
No let up here but this lags headline.

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Aug)

Survey 5.5%
Actual 5.4%
Prior 5.6%
Revised n/a

 
Not much of a drop here as crude fell last august as well.

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Aug)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.5%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

 
Way above the Fed’s target and comfort zone

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CPI Core Index SA (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 216.650
Prior 216.230
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Aug)

Survey 219.300
Actual 219.086
Prior 219.964
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Consumer Price Index ALLX 2 (Aug)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE (Aug)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Aug)

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep )

Survey 17
Actual 18
Prior 16
Revised n/a

 
A touch better than expected, perking up a bit, but still very low historically and could spring back quickly with the agencies back in action.

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE (Sep)

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Sep)

 
Future sales looking pretty good.

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FOMC Rate Decision (Sep 16)

Survey 2.00%
Actual 2.00%
Prior 2.00%
Revised n/a

 
Wonder if Fisher cut a deal not to dissent for the Hawkish inflation language

Karim writes:

Headline CPI -0.137% m/m and core CPI up .194% m/m

  • Trending items stayed on trend (OER +0.1% and medical +0.2%)

  • Volatile items a bit of a wash

  • Recreation (+0.5) and apparel (+1.0%) higher than normal

  • Lodging away from home (-1%) lower than normal

Fed view likely reinforced that decline in commodity prices plus growing economic slack, especially in labor market, will dampen inflation into 2009.

  • Decision (no cut) may be hawkish relative to expectations, but wording mostly dovish.

  • 1st paragraph- All changes highlight downside risks to growth; slowing export growth a new wrinkle in addition to the usual financial market strains, labor market weakness and housing.

  • 2nd paragraph-Identical to prior except mention of inflation expectations has been dropped; so a downgrading of concern over inflation.

  • 3rd paragraph-‘Stand ready to act’ but no mention of ‘in a timely manner’.

  • Fisher dropped his dissent.


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