Re: Roach motel


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(a casual email exchange)

>   
>   On 8/24/08, Russell wrote:
>   
>   I found this an interesting read. Roach argues that economies and the US
>   economy has generally been built on a consumption binge.
>   

Right, consumption is the whole point of working.

Some of the output is consumed, some ‘invested’ for future consumption to be greater than otherwise, but it’s all consumption based. There’s no other point.

>   
>   And the reason why it happened was that the consumption was not based on
>   income, but instead since 1999 is has been based on appreciating asset values
>   and easy access to credit.
>   

The budget surpluses of the late 1990s removed that much income and financial equity (net financial assets) from the non govt sectors.

The only way the economy could continue was accelerating non govt debt. Private sector domestic credit expansion was around 7% of gdp by 2000 before it collapsed due to lack of income and financial equity to support that kind of credit structure.

1% interest rates didn’t turn it around. It was the tax cuts/spending increases/larger govt. deficit that turned it in 03. And as that tail wind was allowed to blow out it all slowed down right up to today. There was a small burst due to the private sector deficit spending due to the sub prime fraud, where lender’s equity fraudulently got spent on houses.

And, again, it was the fiscal package that supported gdp in q2 and q3, along with exports, which resulted from foreign cb’s cutting their accumulation of $US financial assets.

>   
>   Sees a slower global commodity market in the next couple of years as ASIA GDP
>   slows as a result of a slowdown in US consumption.
>   

Consumption will slowdown if agg demand isn’t supported by govts as they all implement demand draining tax advantaged savings incentives (pension funds, ira’s, ins reserves, etc.) that require deficit spending for some other entities sustain demand.

And govt deficits are the only ones that are independently sustainable. Non govt entities have limits they hit periodically.

>   
>   
>   
>    The key question going forward is whether an adaptive and
>   
>    increasingly interrelated global system learns the tough lessons
>   
>    of this macro upheaval. At the heart of this self-appraisal must
>   
>    be a greater awareness of the consequences of striving for
>   
>    open-ended economic growth. The US couldn’t hit its growth
>   
>    target the old fashioned way by relying on internal income
>   
>    generation, so it turned to a new asset- and debt-dependent
>   
>    growth model. Export dependent Developing Asia took its
>   
>    saving-led growth model to excess: Unwilling or unable to
>   
>    stimulate internal private consumption, surplus capital was
>   
>    recycled into infrastructure and dollar-based assets – in effect,
>   
>    forcing super-competitive currencies and exports to become
>   
>    the sustenance of a new development recipe.
>   
>   


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Reuters: German surplus


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Wrong time for tight fiscal from a macro perspective, and contributed to the subsequent slowdown, but as a credit sensitive entity they are compelled to go in that direction.

It’s one of those darned if you do and darned if you don’t.

German budget surplus seen at 7 bln eur in H1-report

by Dave Graham

(Reuters) Germany likely posted a budget surplus of some 7.3 billion euros ($10.85 billion) in the first half of 2008 according to the Kiel-based IfW economic research institute, business daily Handelsblatt reported on Sunday.

The IfW thinktank had calculated the combined surplus of federal, state and local governments in the first half equated to 0.6 percent of German gross domestic product, the paper said.

Germany’s Federal Statistics Office is due to publish a budget balance estimate for the January-to-June period on Tuesday. ($1=.6727 Euro)


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The Daily Telegraph: Bank borrowing from ECB


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[written on Sunday]

While not a problem in the US for the Fed to do this and more (in fact it should be standard operating procedure), the eurozone has self imposed treaty issues that make it very problematic.

If there are defaults its the national governments that will probably be called on to repay the ECB for any losses, but given the national governments didn’t approve the transactions the result will be chaotic at best.

Without bank defaults it will probably all muddle through indefinitely.

As before, the systemic risk is in the eurozone.

Valve repair tomorrow, going to try to smuggle in a knife under my gown to even the odds…

Bank borrowing from ECB is out of control

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The European Central Bank has issued the clearest warning to date that it cannot serve as a perpetual crutch for lenders caught off-guard by the severity of the credit crunch.

Not Wellink, the Dutch central bank chief and a major figure on the ECB council, said that banks were becoming addicted to the liquidity window in Frankfurt and were putting the authorities in an invidious position.

“There is a limit how long you can do this. There is a point where you take over the market,” he told Het Finacieele Dagblad, the Dutch financial daily.

“If we see banks becoming very dependent on central banks, then we must push them to tap other sources of funding,” he said.

While he did not name the chief culprits, there are growing concerns about the scale of ECB borrowing by small Spanish lenders and ‘cajas’ with heavy exposed to the country’s property crash. Dutch banks have also been hungry clients at the ECB window.

One ECB source told The Daily Telegraph that over-reliance on the ECB funds has become an increasingly bitter issue at the bank because the policy amounts to a covert bail-out of lenders in southern Europe.

“Nobody dares pinpoint the country involved because as soon as we do it will cause a market reaction and lead to a meltdown for the banks,” said the source.

This “soft bail-out” is largely underwritten by German and North European taxpayers, though it is occurring in a surreptitious way. It has become a neuralgic issue for the increasingly tense politics of EMU.

The latest data from the Bank of Spain shows that the country’s banks have increased their ECB borrowing to a record €49.6bn (£39bn). A number have been issuing mortgage securities for the sole purpose of drawing funds from Frankfurt.

These banks are heavily reliant on short-term and medium funding from the capital markets. This spigot of credit is now almost entirely closed, making it very hard to roll over loans as they expire.

The ECB has accepted a very wide range of mortgage collateral from the start of the credit crunch. This is a key reason why the eurozone has so far avoided a major crisis along the lines of Bear Stearns or Northern Rock.

While this policy buys time, it leaves the ECB holding large amounts of questionable debt and may be storing up problems for later.

The practice is also skirts legality and risks setting off a political storm. The Maastricht treaty prohibits long-term taxpayer support of this kind for the EMU banking system.

Few officials thought this problem would arise. It was widely presumed that the capital markets would recover quickly, allowing distressed lenders to return to normal sources of funding. Instead, the credit crunch has worsened in Europe.

Not to miss out, Nationwide recently announced that it was setting up operations in Ireland, partly in order to be able to take advantage of ECB liquidity if necessary. Any bank can tap ECB funds if they have a registered branch in the eurozone, although collateral must be denominated in euros.

Jean-Pierre Roth, head of the Swiss National Bank, complained this week that lenders were getting into the habit of shopping for funds from those authorities that offer the best terms. The practice is playing havoc monetary policy.

“What we should avoid is some kind of arbitrage by banks, which say they are going to go to central bank X, instead of central bank Y, because conditions are more attractive,” he said.


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Housing inventory


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Yes, inventory of existing homes looks high, but as suspected the desirable inventory is probably very thing.

Housing starts have been too low for too long for there not to be a shortage looming.

These homes for sale suck

Never before have there been so many squalid, dilapidated homes on the market – and they’re helping to exaggerate already-plummeting home prices.


by Les Christie

(CNNMoney.com) Mold, maggots and piles of festering trash – no wonder home prices are in freefall.

It’s not just the subprime mortgage crisis that’s to blame for plummeting home prices. A flood of squalid properties on the market is helping to exaggerate the post-bubble price declines.

“Part of the reason home prices are declining is a fundamental deterioration in the housing stock,” said Glenn Kelman, CEO of the online, discount broker Redfin. “During the boom, nine out of 10 houses for sale in many markets were in prime condition. Now, for every 10 houses, at least three are dogs.”

Most of these mutts are foreclosed properties that have been permitted to fall into disrepair by lenders overwhelmed with thousands of vacant homes. If these houses sell at all, they’re going for bargain basement prices that are hurting home values throughout the neighborhood.


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Re: Russian invasion


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(an email from my brother)

>   
>   Hi
>   Hope things are going well
>   

yes, thanks!

>   
>   Laugh:
>   I asked Rachel what percentage of her friends thought Russia invaded USA
>   state of Georgia. She said when she heard it the first time she thought he
>   US was invaded. Even now she says over half still think the US was
>   invaded-the other half don’t pay attention!!
>   
>   


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Bernanke


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Karim writes:

Overall tone->On hold->Economy to stay weak->Recognizes rates are low amid inflation risk->But no mention of acting in a timely manner->Credit strains remain high->Commodities and USD offering respite on inflation outlook. Bulk of speech dedicated to financial infrastructure and supervision.

Click to read Bernanke’s Speech

  • Although we have seen improved functioning in some markets, the financial storm that reached gale force some weeks before our last meeting here in Jackson Hole has not yet subsided, and its effects on the broader economy are becoming apparent in the form of softening economic activity and rising unemployment. Add to this mix a jump in inflation, in part the product of a global commodity boom, and the result has been one of the most challenging economic and policy environments in memory.
  • We have recently extended our special programs for primary dealers beyond the end of the year, based on our assessment that financial conditions remain unusual and exigent. We will continue to review all of our liquidity facilities to determine if they are having their intended effects or require modification.


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Nikkei News: China exporting inflation to Japan


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Cliff Viner writes:

This is important. We’ve mentioned it before. And although the article is about Japan, it applies to many of China’s other export markets.

Yes, the whole global backdrop shifted from a deflationary to an inflationary bias over the last couple of years.

Also, with all of our outsourcing, these imports costs or some extent replace what was unit labor costs in previous cycle.

So in that sense, labor costs are rising faster than our domestic labor numbers indicate.

China Switches From Deflation Exporter To Inflation Exporter

(Nikkei) The prices of Chinese goods are rising in Japan, with sharp increases hitting anything from clothing to audio equipment. If the rise persists, China, which has long underpinned Japan’s steady price structure with its inexpensive products, could become a factor in lifting Japan’s overall price level.

According to a Bank of Japan check on the July prices of imported products, of which more than 50% are supplied by China, polo shirts and gloves cost some 9% more than in July last year. Pajamas and sweat suits also were up 4%. As made-in-China items make up 80% of Japan’s total clothing imports, higher costs can translate into higher price tags at retailers down the road.

The price rise is not limited to clothing. Imports of toys, of which 90% come from China, shot up 10% in July on the year. The price tags on bags, 50% of which originate in China, also climbed 9%. Of audio and video equipment, with the Chinese import ratio of more than 50%, audio devices increased 3-4%. Among other items, China-made cotton cloth, used mainly for bedding and dress shirts, rose to nine-year highs indicating that rising prices of Chinese imports now run the gamut.

Running to a value of 15 trillion yen in fiscal 2007, Chinese products now account for some 20% of Japan’s total import bills. According to trade statistics compiled by the Ministry of Finance, the price index of Chinese imports, which had been falling, rebounded to positive territory in fiscal 2004 and climbed 7.7% on the year in fiscal 2007 with the uptick still continuing.

Increasing prices of Chinese imports are caused in large part by rising wages in that country. Average wages of China’s urban workers rose 18.7% during 2007 over the previous year. Moreover, labor costs in China are destined to rise further with the passage of the labor contract law in January this year which encourages employers to give employees longer contracts.

The substantial appreciation of the yuan is also to blame for increasing the costs of Chinese imports. The yuan’s value rose 20% against the dollar over the three years since Beijing revalued the currency’s exchange rate in July 2005.

So the Chinese factor is casting increasingly dark shadows over Japan’s price picture. “Attention tends to focus on soaring crude oil prices as the main culprit for the recent bout of inflationary pressure, but nearly 10% of the overall increase in imported products is attributable to the Chinese factor,” said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. This is perhaps why many Bank of Japan economists see China as switching, as far as Japan is concerned, from a deflation exporter to an inflation exporter.


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2008-08-21 US Economic Releases


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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 16)

Survey 440K
Actual 432K
Prior 450K
Revised 445K

Still high, even though lower than expected and last week revised down some. It will take a while before the effect of the new extended benefit program is altering the numbers.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 9)

Survey 3405K
Actual 3362K
Prior 3417K
Revised 3379K

Also lower than expected and last week revised down, But still high and not showing any meaningful signs of a top.

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Jobless Claims TABLE 1 (Aug 16)

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Jobless Claims TABLE 2 (Aug 16)

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Philadelphia Fed (Aug)

Survey -12.6
Actual -12.7
Prior -16.3
Revised n/a

Still negative, but the rate of contraction seems to be declining.

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Aug)

Prices paid down some, but still way high.

Employment improved to near flat.

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Aug)

Workweek creeping up some.

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Leading Indicators (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -0.1%
Revised 0.0%

Worse than expected. This is a domestic demand indicator that has been trending down for quite a while.

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Jul)

A lot of the specifics seem questionable regarding relevance.


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The 8000lb bear in the room


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There’s nothing credit issues can do to GDP that fiscal policy can’t handle.

Congress has seemingly figured that out and probably the rest of the world as well as evidenced by the new proposed fiscal packages popping up around the world.

Yes, we can lose a bank or two, and lending standards tighten further, but GDP will continue to muddle through even if that means a series of fiscal measures.

And Congress was born to spend; so, they are all over this one.

The only thing that might slow them down is inflation, and so far they’ve seemed to support the Fed trying to step hard on the inflation pedal, rather than ‘tighten’ which presumably helps inflation.

And no one seems to notice the 8000lb bear in the room.

Our response to Russia reminds me of Monty Python’s coconut clapping Arthur trying to intimidate the French defenders of the fort with his credentials.

We threaten them with diplomatic isolation, trade sanctions, etc. as if they care.

They don’t care.

They do care about the new missiles going into Poland.

And we are committed to considering an attack on Poland or any other NATO member as an attack on US soil, as Rice reminded them and even maybe dared them to try something.

We can’t defend anyone against against Russia with our own troops without risking nuclear war.

And Russia will be a lot quicker to that trigger than we will.

And they still have maybe thousands of nuclear warheads aimed our way.

Their next step for Russia is probably to make an offer to the rest of the ex-Soviet Union members they can’t refuse.

Russia sells the Eurozone something like 30% of their oil and gas and can do it at any price they want, and demand any real terms of trade they want.

The risk is we try to draw a line in the sand in some nowhere place over there, and it escalates to where we back down or get involved in lobbing nukes.

I suppose it’s just another case of this administration not seeing the forest for the trees.

We’ve let Russia be reorganized by the ex-KGB leadership that’s a lot smarter than ours, and now we’re paying the price.

Both the inflation and cold war of the 1970s is back, except this time our opposition is far stronger.

There is no even semi-quick supply response to dislodge the Saudis and/or Russians from setting any terms of trade they want.

The Russian consolidation is on the way up supported by a bath of capitalist type riches rather than crumbling under its own weight of a failed socialist economy.

Apart from that, I’m optimistic.


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Quick update


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(an email sent late this afternoon)

Hi all!

Sorry for this impersonal mass email- would have liked to do each individually.

I’m in Cleveland now, scheduled to get my mitral valve repaired Monday (aka heart surgery).

If so, should be back in this hotel room by Thursday, and home over the weekend. I’ve always had a mitral valve prolapse and at my physical last year testing showed that sometime in the last several years it has deteriorated some and should be repaired before it got worse.

Unfortunately the doctor at the Cleveland Clinic in Miami last year never mentioned this was happening, and if I hadn’t insisted on them forwarding my records for my personal physician Steve Martyak to check out (which took over 6 months) I still wouldn’t know what was going on.

The doc assigned to me here is more than concerned over what happened and is doing what he can to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

I have another test tomorrow, then a consultation Friday with a Dr. Sapik who is scheduled to do the actual surgery.

Will keep you all posted as to any progress/changes.

thanks in advance, no need to respond!

warren


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