2008-08-18 Weekly Credit Graph Packet


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Moving sideways.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Aug 18)

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IG6 Spreads (Aug 18)

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IG7 Spreads (Aug 18)

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IG8 Spreads (Aug 18)

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IG9 Spreads (Aug 18)


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2008-08-19 US Economic Releases


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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Aug 19)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Aug 19)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

Doing just fine, especially considering the financial sector is gone.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Aug 19)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.3%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Aug 19)

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Producer Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

Up more than expected.

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PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Core nudging up a touch…

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Producer Price Index YoY (Jul)

Survey 9.3%
Actual 9.8%
Prior 9.2%
Revised n/a

Just a little blip up that’s starting to make the 1970s look tame.

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PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jul)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.0%
Revised n/a

Cute little break out here too.

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PPI TABLE 1 (Jul)

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PPI TABLE 2 (Jul)

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PPI TABLE 3 (Jul)

Karim writes:

  • PPI for July up 1.2% and 0.7% ex-food and energy
  • Core driven by cars and trucks the past 2mths (seems out of line w/cpi data) and medical

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Housing Starts (Jul)

Survey 960K
Actual 965K
Prior 1066K
Revised 1084K

A bit higher than expected, and last month revised up.

Averaging out the last couple of months or so to smooth the NY situation indicates a leveling off and probably a bottom.

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Building Permits (Jul)

Survey 970K
Actual 937K
Prior 1091K
Revised 1138K

Down, but last month revised up. Same as above.

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Housing Starts TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Housing Starts TABLE 2 (Jul)

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Housing Starts TABLE 3 (Jul)

Karim writes:

  • Starts fall 11% after upward revision to June (now up 10.4%)
  • Noise in data still surrounds multi-family due to change in NYC building code (multi-family dropped 23.6% after rising 41.3% in June)
  • Single family drops another 2.9% after 3.2% drop in June and now down 39.2% y/y
  • Same story with permits, down 17.7% m/m after 16.4% rise in June
  • Single family permits down 5.2% m/m after -3% in June and down 41.4% y/y
  • Multi-family down 32.4% m/m after up 52.2% m/m in June

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Aug 17)

Survey -50
Actual -49
Prior -50
Revised n/a

very low, may be bottoming, confidence being hurt by inflation.


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AP: Foreclosure digestive process at work

Prices stabilizing as volumes increase:

SoCal home prices fall in July, sales up

by Elliot Spagat

(AP) A research firm says Southern California home prices fell 31 percent in July from last year, while the number of homes sold hit its highest level since March 2007.

MDA DataQuick said in its report Monday that the median price for new and resale homes and condos dropped to $348,000 last month in the six-county region. That’s down from the market peak of $505,000 in July 2007 and down slightly from $355,000 in June.

The report says a total of 20,329 homes and condos were sold during the month, up 13.8 percent from July 2007 and up 16.7 percent from June.

It says foreclosures accounted for 43.6 percent of all resold properties last month, up from 7.9 percent in July 2007 and a revised 41.8 percent in June.