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• Trade Balance (Released 8:30 EST)
• Trade Balance ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
• Trade Balance Ex Petroleum (Released 8:30 EST)
• Exports YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
• Imports YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
• Import Price Index MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
• Import Price Index YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
• U. of Michigan Confidence (Released 10:00 EST)
• U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE (Released 10:00 EST)
• Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Released 10:00 EST)
• Inflation Expectations 5y Fwd (Released 10:00 EST)
• Monthly Budget Statement (Released 14:00 EST)

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Trade Balance (May)

Survey	-$62.5B
Actual	-$59.8B
Prior	-$60.9B
Revised	-$60.5B

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Trade Balance (May)

Seems to be working its way lower, but rising import prices are a moving target.
Without CBs and monetary authorities buying to help their exporters, I don’t think the rest of the world wants to accumulate $60 billion a month of financial assets, which means the USD will continue to fall and US prices will continue higher until the real trade gap falls to desired levels.

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Trade Balance Ex Petroleum (May)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-$26.636B
Prior	-$25.724B
Revised	n/a

This has come down quite a bit and should continue to fall over time.

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Exports YoY (May)

Survey	n/a
Actual	17.8%
Prior	19.6%
Revised	n/a

Booming!

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Imports YoY (May)

Survey	n/a
Actual	12.5%
Prior	13.6%
Revised	n/a

Working their way to lower rates of increase, even with energy prices rising.

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Import Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey	2.0%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	2.6%

‘Inflation’ pouring in through the open window.

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Import Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey	18.6%
Actual	20.5%
Prior	17.8%
Revised	18.8%

Inflation pouring in through the open window.

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U. of Michigan Confidence (Jul P)

Survey	55.5
Actual	56.6
Prior	56.4
Revised	-

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U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE (Jul P)

Inflation hurting confidence even as current conditions have improved some.

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Jul P)

Survey	n/a
Actual	5.3%
Prior	5.1%
Revised	n/a

Fed considers this reason for alarm.

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Inflation Expectations 5y Fwd (Jul P)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.4%
Prior	3.4%
Revised	n/a

Way too high for the Fed and going the wrong way.

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Monthly Budget Statement (Jun)

Survey	$34.0B
Actual	$50.7B
Prior	$27.5B
Revised	n/a

Haven’t seen the detail. This can be very volatile due to timing issues.

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Warren B speaks at lunch time during an economic conference.

This video is completely unedited and will be released in four parts.

Enjoy!

:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grxSf-d4N-o