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Dollar Index vs US Exports

Right – seems to me the dollar will fall until it’s at a level where the trade gap goes to about zero. So even though exports are way up and the trade gap down, there could be a lot more to go.

A nation can only run a trade deficit to the extent non-residents (governments and private sector agents) desire to net accumulate its financial assets (or buy its domestic assets such as real estate).

Seems to me Paulson, Bush, and Bernanke have successfully kept the world’s CBs, monetary authorities, and portfolio managers from actively accumulating USD financial assets.

Doesn’t seem like jawboning is going to alter foreign ‘savings desires’ apart from short term trading responses.

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Muddling through above recession levels.

TABLE-US chain store sales rise 2.0 pct last wk-Redbook

NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) – Redbook Research on Tuesday released the
following seasonally adjusted weekly data on U.S. chain store sales:
Year-over-year: Week (w/e 5/31/08 vs year ago) 2.0 pct
Year-over-year:Month (May 2008 vs May 2007) 1.8 pct
Month-over-month: (May 2008 vs April 2008) 1.9 pct

 

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index is a sales-weighted index of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large U.S. general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. (Editing by Theodore d’Afflisio; U.S. Treasury desk; Tel: 646-223-6300)

–

 

NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) – The International Council of
Shopping Centers and UBS Securities on Tuesday released the
following seasonally adjusted weekly data on U.S. chain store
retail sales.
WEEK ENDING INDEX 1977=100 YEAR/YEAR CHANGE WEEKLY CHANGE

                              (percent)         (percent)

May   31           484.3             1.2               -0.8

May   24           488.2             1.5                0.0

May   17           488.3             1.6               -0.4

May   10           490.3             0.5               -1.0

May    3           495.4             2.3               -0.2

The ICSC-UBS weekly U.S. retail chain store sales index is a

joint publication between ICSC and UBS Securities LLC. It

measures nominal same-store sales, excluding restaurant and

vehicle demand, and represents about 75  retail chain stores.

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• Total Vehicle Sales (Released n/a EST)
• Domestic Vehicle Sales (Released n/a EST)
• Factory Orders YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
• Factory Orders Ex Transportation (Released 10:00 EST)
• Factory Orders MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
• ABC Consumer Confidence (Released 17:00 EST)

Total Vehicle Sales (May)

Very weak, as was transportation in general, but more than made up for by other factory orders, see below.

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (May)

As above, very weak.

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Factory Orders YoY (Apr)

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Factory Orders Ex Transportation

Upside surprise, and non-transportation up very strong.

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Factory Orders MoM (Apr)

More upside surprises.
No recession, and this was before the fiscal package kicked in.

With domestic demand not this strong, could be even larger increases in exports as foreigners continue to spend their now unwanted hoard of USD over here.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 1)

Even this indicator had an upside surprise.

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