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2008-05-24 Valance Weekly Chart Review

Posted by Sada Mosler on May 24th, 2008

2008-05-24 Real GDP

Hard to see any recession here, and the consensus is for Q1 to be revised up to 0.9%, bringing year over year up to 2.8%.

I also think the estimates of the effects of the fiscal package are on the low side.

2008-05-24 Personal Spending, Personal Income

Income and spending continue to chug along, ahead of core but not headline ‘inflation’.

2008-05-24 Total Delinquency Rate, Residential Delinquency Rate, All Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate, Credit Card Delinquency Rate

Still moving higher.

2008-05-24 Fiscal Balance, Government Public Debt, Government Spending, Government Revenue

Fiscal rebates now kicking, with other government spending on the rise as well – should be a decent Q2 and better Q3.

And revenues seems to be holding up also indicating no recession yet.

2008-05-24 Export Prices, U. of Michigan 12 Month Inflation Expectations, CRB Index, Saudi Crude Production

2008-05-24 Philly Fed Prices Paid, Philly Prices Received

While headline CPI took a slight breather due to seasonal factors, the drivers of the current bout of inflation continue without let up, as crude oil touches $135 and the USD fall resumes.

Saudi crude output remains above 9 million bpd, indicating world demand is holding at the higher prices.

Booming exports and export prices work in tandem.

Inflation expectations have alarmed the FOMC with recent speeches indicating there will probably be no more rate cuts if inflation continues to escalate .

2008-05-24 U. of Michigan Confidence

3 Responses to “2008-05-24 Valance Weekly Chart Review”

  1. jcmccutcheon Says:

    Right now people are reducing the amount of driving they are doing.
    Does that mean they will cut back on spending (ex gas.)


  2. warren mosler Says:

    gas is taking a larger bite from income, with other purchases apparently being reduced.

    seems exports have been picking up the slack as those receiving the oil revenues are spending their $ here.


  3. warren mosler Says:

    Mike Norman’s show
    TIME: Thursday, May 29, 2008 @ 10:00 EST

    Mike says I’ll be a guest for the hour show.


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