Posted by Sada Mosler on 8th May 2008
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Initial Jobless Claims (May 3)
| Survey |
370K |
| Actual |
365K |
| Prior |
380K |
| Revised |
383K |
Still far from recession levels anticipated several months ago by most forecasters.
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Continuing Claims (Apr 26)
| Survey |
3020K |
| Actual |
3020K |
| Prior |
3019K |
| Revised |
3030K |
Far from recession levels but the chart is still looking higher. This often lags initial claims.
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Wholesale Inventories (Mar)
| Survey |
0.5% |
| Actual |
-0.1% |
| Prior |
1.1% |
| Revised |
0.9% |
Another sign that the odds of a recession are lower than anticipated a few months ago.
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ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY
| Survey |
n/a |
| Actual |
3.6% |
| Prior |
-0.5% |
| Revised |
n/a |
More evidence the worst is over, and recession was never in the cards.
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Posted by Sada Mosler on 8th May 2008
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May be working through the ‘J’ curve.
The pace of the US trade gap falling at the ‘expense’ of the reverse happening elsewhere might be increasing.
More info with US march trade numbers due out soon.
World budget deficits are in general too small for robust growth with the financial sector in its current phase.
Saudis continue as price setter.
Crude outperforming most other commodities that are not subject to monopoly price setting.
| ECB, BOE Expected to Hold Rates Steady |
| Germany’s trade surplus drops in March; below expectations |
| German Exports Unexpectedly Fell as Euro Appreciated |
| French Lending Rates Fell in First Quarter, Bank of France Says |
| Europe and US unite on stronger dollar |
| German March Industrial Output Fell on Construction Output |
| Bank of America’s Schmieding Says ECB Watching Labor Market |
| Euro Is `Anchor of Stability,’ Juncker Tells Boersen-Zeitung |
| Euro hits 2-month low vs. dollar on growth jitters before ECB meeting |
| European Bonds Advance Before ECB Rate Decision |
| Berlusconi to Take Office, Put Tremonti in Charge of Economy |
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