2008-05-08 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-08 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (May 3)

Survey 370K
Actual 365K
Prior 380K
Revised 383K

Still far from recession levels anticipated several months ago by most forecasters.

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2008-05-08 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 26)

Survey 3020K
Actual 3020K
Prior 3019K
Revised 3030K

Far from recession levels but the chart is still looking higher. This often lags initial claims.

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2008-05-08 Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale Inventories (Mar)

Survey 0.5%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Another sign that the odds of a recession are lower than anticipated a few months ago.

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2008-05-08 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

More evidence the worst is over, and recession was never in the cards.


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2008-05-08 EU Highlights – Germany’s trade surplus drops in March


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May be working through the ‘J’ curve.

The pace of the US trade gap falling at the ‘expense’ of the reverse happening elsewhere might be increasing.

More info with US march trade numbers due out soon.

World budget deficits are in general too small for robust growth with the financial sector in its current phase.

Saudis continue as price setter.

Crude outperforming most other commodities that are not subject to monopoly price setting.

Highlights
ECB, BOE Expected to Hold Rates Steady
Germany’s trade surplus drops in March; below expectations
German Exports Unexpectedly Fell as Euro Appreciated
French Lending Rates Fell in First Quarter, Bank of France Says
Europe and US unite on stronger dollar
German March Industrial Output Fell on Construction Output
Bank of America’s Schmieding Says ECB Watching Labor Market
Euro Is `Anchor of Stability,’ Juncker Tells Boersen-Zeitung
Euro hits 2-month low vs. dollar on growth jitters before ECB meeting
European Bonds Advance Before ECB Rate Decision
Berlusconi to Take Office, Put Tremonti in Charge of Economy


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