2008-04-30 US Economic Releases


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2008-04-30 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 25)

Survey n/a
Actual 340.1
Prior 357.3
Revised n/a

Definately looking weak. Winter is over, and tax rebates are in the mail.


2008-04-30 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 1905.2
Prior 2286.3
Revised n/a

Settling down as well.


2008-04-30 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey -60K
Actual 10K
Prior 8K
Revised 3K

Employment growth continues to slow over time but not yet signaling recession.

Non-farm payrolls muddling through as well.


2008-04-30 GDP QoQ Annualized

GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Still in the black, and my guess is it’s likely to be revised up with the March trade numbers that are due in in a couple of weeks.


2008-04-30 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (1Q A)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Also holding up better than expected, and rebates are on the way.


2008-04-30 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (1Q A)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

Better than expected, still high, and with crude continuing to move up it’s going up as well.


2008-04-30 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (1Q A)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

The trend is up, and the Fed is monitoring it closely…


2008-04-30 Employment Cost Index

Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

Looks under control, but not a brake on inflation.


2008-04-30 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey 47.5%
Actual 48.3%
Prior 48.2%
Revised n/a

A touch better than expected, but still trending lower.


2008-04-30 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 48.0
Prior 47.0
Revised n/a

Also not down to recession levels yet.


2008-04-30 FOMC Rate Decision

FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 30)

Survey 2.00%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.25%
Revised n/a

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