Daily Archives: March 27, 2008 @ 9:22 am (Thursday)

2008-03-27 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-27 GDP Annualized

GDP Annualized (4Q F)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

2008-03-27 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (4Q F)

Survey 1.9%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Revised up to a very respectable number. And income remains positive, and employment is at high levels.

2008-03-27 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (4Q F)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

A bit better than previously reported, but prices have subsequently gone much higher.

2008-03-27 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (4Q F)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 2.5%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

The Fed is more concerned about this and the evidence food and energy is getting passed through from headline to core measures.

2008-03-27 Initial Jobless Claims since 1998

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 22)

Survey 370K
Actual 366K
Prior 378K
Revised 375K

2008-03-27 Continuing Claims since 1998

Continuing Claims (Mar 15)

Survey 2885K
Actual 2845K
Prior 2865K
Revised 2850K

Best guess:

The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with today’s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week.

That does not mean the issues with the financial sector are all behind us – far from it.

It does mean the real economy has figured out how to move on with what’s left of the financial sector.

2008-03-27 Help Wanted Index

Help Wanted Index (Feb)

Survey 20
Actual 21
Prior 21
Revised 22

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The full employment recession is over

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Best guess:

The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with today’s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week.

That does not mean the issues with the financial sector are all behind us – far from it.

It does mean the real economy has figured out how to move on with what’s left of the financial sector.

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2008-03-27 JN Highlights

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Highlights:

Fukuda Offers To Free Up Road Revenues For General Spending From FY09

Adds to aggregate demand.

MOF Frets Over Yen, But No Threat Of Action

Don’t want Paulson to call them a currency manipulator.

Suda: Natural For BOJ To Aim For Rate Hike

They see inflation heating up over time.

Some Gas Stations Raise Prices Ahead Of Expiring Surcharge
Toyota, Nissan To Raise Entry-Level Pay For College Graduates
Bonds: End Up On Weak Stocks: CPI, Tankan Eyed

Article:

Bonds: End Up On Weak Stocks: CPI, Tankan Eyed

TOKYO (Dow Jones)–Japanese government bonds ended higher Thursday due to weakness in Tokyo stocks but the upside was limited ahead of the fiscal-year end and major domestic events.

Market participants are now waiting for domestic economic data, including the consumer price index due out Friday, and the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey on April 1.

“If the CPI figure comes out better than market expectations (and tops 1%), BOJ rate cut views may slightly recede,” said Naomi Hasegawa, senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

Note the rhetoric that states higher inflation is ‘better’ !!!

I still have a TIBOR short a year out as a bet they don’t cut as much as is priced in.

Japan’s nationwide core CPI, excluding fresh food, is expected to have risen 0.9% on year in February, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones and Nikkei. The index climbed 0.8% in January. The five-year yield dropped 3.0 basis points to 0.725%. Yields on 10-year and 20-year JGBs were both down 1.0 basis point at 1.265% and 2.010% respectively.

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2008-03-27 UK Highlights

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Things may have started turning up in March in the UK as well as the US and the eurozone.

U.K. Business Spending Reaches Highest Since 2005 (Bloomberg) – U.K. business investment rose to the most in 2 1/2 years in the fourth quarter, led by manufacturing companies. Investment in equipment, vehicles and buildings rose 1.8 % from the three months through September, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Spending rose 5.3 % from a year earlier to 36.7 bln pounds, the most since the second quarter of 2005. The report suggests manufacturers, which account for 15 % of the economy, spent on their businesses after profiting from a weaker pound and reaching the strongest level of factory production since 2001 last year.

U.K. Sales Index Rises for First Time in Four Months, CBI Says (Bloomberg) – An index of U.K. retail sales rose for the first time in four months in March as shoppers spent more on shoes and groceries, the Confederation of British Industry said. The survey of 152 retailers showed 36 % sold more goods than a year earlier and 35 % sold fewer, the biggest U.K. business lobby said today. The net rounded balance of 1 %age point was higher than the minus 3 from last month.

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