Monthly Archive:: March 2008

2008-03-28 US Economic Releases

Personal Income (Feb) Survey 0.3% Actual 0.5% Prior 0.3% Revised n/a This is what supports the economy longer term and cushions downturns. Personal Spending (Feb) Survey 0.1% Actual 0.1% Prior 0.4% Revised n/a Down some, but with personal income remaining firm spending is sustained over the medium term. PCE Deflator YoY (Feb) ...Read More

Plosser the hawk

Plosser, Dissenting Fed Voter, Says Price Stability Is Priority By John Brinsley March 28 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser, who voted against this month’s interest-rate cut, said keeping inflation in check is the “most effective” way of ensuring economic growth and job creation. “Price stability is not ...Read More

2008-03-27 US Economic Releases

GDP Annualized (4Q F) Survey 0.6% Actual 0.6% Prior 0.6% Revised n/a Personal Consumption (4Q F) Survey 1.9% Actual 2.3% Prior 1.9% Revised n/a Revised up to a very respectable number. And income remains positive, and employment is at high levels. GDP Price Index (4Q F) Survey 2.7% Actual 2.4% Prior 2.7% ...Read More

The full employment recession is over

Best guess: The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with today’s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week. That does not mean the issues with the financial sector are all behind us – far from it. It ...Read More

2008-03-27 JN Highlights

Highlights: Fukuda Offers To Free Up Road Revenues For General Spending From FY09 Adds to aggregate demand. MOF Frets Over Yen, But No Threat Of Action Don’t want Paulson to call them a currency manipulator. Suda: Natural For BOJ To Aim For Rate Hike They see inflation heating up over time. Some ...Read More

2008-03-27 UK Highlights

Things may have started turning up in March in the UK as well as the US and the eurozone. U.K. Business Spending Reaches Highest Since 2005 (Bloomberg) – U.K. business investment rose to the most in 2 1/2 years in the fourth quarter, led by manufacturing companies. Investment in equipment, vehicles and ...Read More

Changing dynamics for the Fed

Cutting 75 basis points rather than the expected 100 basis points gave the Fed positive near term reinforcement from market participants: Dollar went up Food/fuel/commodities went down Stocks did ok, including housing companies Credit did ok But it’s going to look to the Fed a bit like taking medicine: initial small doses ...Read More

2008-03-26 US Economic Releases

MBAVPRCH Index (Mar 21) Survey n/a Actual 403.7 Prior 365.0 Revised n/a More evidence of a turn in housing: Mortgage applications spike after Fed action (Reuters) The Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage applications index jumped 48.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted 965.9 in the week ended March 21, its highest level since early ...Read More

2008-03-25 US Economic Releases

S&P-CS Home Price Index (Jan) Survey n/a Actual 180.7 Prior 184.9 Revised 185.0 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY (Jan) Survey -10.5% Actual -10.7% Prior -9.1% Revised -9.0% Still falling.  January/Winter numbers.  Lagging indicators. Just kicked in in March. Consumer Confidence (Mar) Survey 73.5 Actual 64.5 Prior 75.0 Revised 76.4 Down sharply, a lagging indicator, ...Read More

2008-03-24 US Economic Releases

Existing Home Sales (Feb) Survey 4.85M Actual 5.03M Prior 4.89M Revised n/a Existing Home Sales MoM (Feb) Survey -0.8% Actual 2.9% Prior -0.4% Revised n/a Existing Home Sales Inventory (Feb) Survey n/a Actual 4.034 Prior 4.160 Revised n/a Better than expected. Inventories coming down. Median price down. Expanded agency limits for conforming ...Read More