2008-02-05 US Economic Releases

2008-02-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jan)

Survey 52.5
Actual 44.6
Prior 53.2
Revised n/a

2008-02-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Business

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business (Jan)

Survey 53.0
Actual 41.9
Prior 53.9
Revised 54.4

These are the types of numbers you get after something like Katrina or 911. Either the economy hit the wall suddenly in January or there is some kind of statistical adjustment that took place.

Note that ISM was revised even higher for December, then collapsed in January. Other statistics that fell apart in January include payrolls, vehicle sales, and mortgage applications, which come out in a few hours, and initial claims, due out tomorrow.


2008-02-05 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Feb 3)

Survey n/a
Actual -33
Prior -27
Revised n/a

This has been falling for a while and is no surprise given the headline recession proclamations.


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ABC Buying Climate Index

Yes, one more data point indicating we hit the wall right around year end.

(ISM, car sales, payrolls, redbook sales)

Maybe the stock market scared consumers? Cliff is convinced stock market drops cause consumer retrenchment and recessions. Can’t say I disagree with something like 75% of Americans now holding shares.

But something did change and very quickly. .

comments welcome!

2008-02-05 ABC Buying Climate Index


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Whirlpool Results

Anecdotal support for twin themes of declining domestic demand augmented by booming export demand, and rising prices:

Whirlpool’s Maytag buy pays off in 4Q

by James Prichard

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. – Whirlpool Corp. said Tuesday its fourth-quarter profit climbed 72 percent, helped by its Maytag acquisition, an improved product mix and the weak dollar.

Its net earnings for all of 2007 rose 48 percent.

The appliance maker, which bought Maytag in 2006, said earnings after preferred dividends increased to $187 million, or $2.38 per share, compared with $109 million, or $1.37 per share, in the prior year.

Quarterly revenue grew 7 percent to $5.33 billion from $5 billion a year earlier.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected net income of $2.15 per share on sales of $5.27 billion.


The company performed well despite flat domestic sales and continued price increases for raw materials, said Jeff M. Fettig, Whirlpool’s chairman and chief executive.

“Our performance in this environment highlights the strength of our global brands and the geographic diversity of our global operating platform,” he said in a written statement.


Whirlpool North America sales slipped less than 1 percent to $3 billion, while sales in its European segment rose 12 percent to $1.1 billion. Latin America sales surged about 30 percent to more than $1 billion. Whirlpool Asia sales grew 26 percent to $155 million.


Q4 Earnings Really Weren’t Too Bad — Except For Banking

Up 11% ex financials, and if you do it ex financial writeoffs and include financial operating earnings its higher than that.

The risks to 2008 come from perceived risks of a general slowdown that hasn’t happened yet.

They also point to the January payroll number to support their 2008 concerns. Yes, payrolls are a concern which may solidify if the first revision next month isn’t upward by at least 50,000.

http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=NzM4NTU2 .

Q4 Earnings Really Weren’t Too Bad — Except For Banking

by Ed Carson

Corporate profits can be boom or bust. Right now they’re both. With 58% of the S&P 500 reporting results as of Monday morning, fourth-quarter earnings are on track to dive 20.7% from a year earlier, according to Thomson Financial. It would be the worst showing since the fourth quarter of…


2008-02-04 US Economic Releases

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Challenger Job Cuts Total (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 74,986
Prior 44,416
Revised n/a

A volatile number that has been showing low levels of layoffs and not given much weight either way.


2008-02-04 Factory Orders Total

Factory Orders (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 441,566
Prior 431,489
Revised n/a

Another strong number – no sign of recession here.


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2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

2007-02-01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Survey 70K
Actual -17K
Prior 18K
Revised 82K

Last negative number was August – got revised up.

Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad.

(See following report.)


2008-02-01 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate

Survey 5.0%
Actual 4.9%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

Slight downtic.

The Fed calls 4.75% full employment.

So, this is close enough.


2008-02-01 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)

Survey -20K
Actual -28K
Prior -31K
Revised -20K

Suspiciously low as a per December durable goods and export numbers.


2008-02-01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-02-01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan)

Survey 3.9%
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.7%
Revised n/a

Seems to be under control though a weak productivity number could raise unit labor costs.


2008-02-01 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours

Survey 33.8
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.8
Revised n/a

Down a bit. Fairly steady.


2008-02-01 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.1681
Prior -3.4285
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 254.3
Prior 255.5
Revised 258.9

November housing was weak.


2008-02-01 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey 79.0
Actual 78.4
Prior 80.5
Revised n/a

Not bad.

2008-02-01 U. of Michigan TABLE

Both current and expected improved.

U. of Michigan TABLE


2008-02-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 47.3
Actual 50.7
Prior 47.7
Revised 48.4

Back to growth mode.


2008-02-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey 68.0
Actual 76.0
Prior 68.0
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping here.


2008-02-01 Construction Spending

Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -1.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised -0.4%

Still bumping along the bottom.

3 most important numbers

From Karim:

  1. Index of aggregate hours -0.3%
  1. Diffusion index from 50.0 to 46.2
  1. Median duration of unemployment from 8.4 to 8.8 weeks

So output likely declining, more industries shedding jobs than adding, and l-t unemployed accounting for larger % of total unemployed

Other notes..

  • Unemployment rate falls from 4.97% to 4.925%.

Partially reversing last month’s rise.

  • Temp jobs fall by 9k (good coincident indicator)
  • Average hourly earnings up only 0.2%
  • Net revisions to 2007 -376k
  • NFP decline of 17k first decline since 8/03

This is not the first reported drop in payrolls, as August originally reported down 4,000. It was eventually revised up to 92,000 and then further revised up to 74,000 with benchmark revisions.

December was revised up to 82,000 from 18,000.

November down from 115,000 to 60,000.

This rearranges the sequence with November now possible the bottom, should January get revised up higher than 82,000.

  • Rare decline posted in business services (-11k)
  • Mfg (-28k) surprising in light of weak $
  • Construction sheds another 27k
  • Govt loses a surprising 18k jobs

Yes, these look like the kind of numbers likely to result in the kinds of revisions we’ve been seeing continuously for at least six months.

And the revisions to payroll numbers have put them more in line with the ADP numbers.

ADP was up 130,000 for January.

December durable goods was a blowout number.

Inventories were down substantially in Q4.

While the initial reported payroll numbers have all been substantially revised, markets have continued to respond to the initial reports and not to the revisions.


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