Monthly Archive:: February 2008

2008-02-29 US Economic Releases

Personal Income YoY (Jan) Survey n/a Actual 4.9 Prior 5.6 Revised n/a Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income. This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, ...Read More

Re: GDP/claims

(an interoffice email) On Thu, Feb 28, 2008 at 9:38 AM, Karim wrote:   Housing and business capex weaker than originally estimated; exports stronger All above offset to leave gwth at 0.6% annualized in Q4 Yes, nominal growth falls to 3.3% from 6.0% in Q3 as well.   More important news is ...Read More

Bloomberg: Calpers to Increase Commodity Assets to as Much as $7.2 Billion

And 3% of assets is on the low side. I think most were targeting 4% allocations, and now I’m hearing some are moving north of 10%, which should keep the commodities going for quite a while. Calpers to Increase Commodity Assets to as Much as $7.2 Bil by Saijel Kishan (Bloomberg) The ...Read More

TIPS 5yr 5yr fwd

One of the Fed’s favorite inflation expectation indicators continues to look to be breaking out. All pre/post ‘July 2006 pause’ progress has been reversed. TIPS 5yr 5yr fwd ...Read More

Re: Bernanke/data

(an interoffice email) Yes, and he reaffirmed that he’s using the futures prices to predict where prices are going.  He pointed to crude being at $95 in the back months and stated that translates to a forecast for prices to come down from current levels. Also indicated the lower dollar is useful ...Read More

New home sales

Weak winter sales, but the absolute number of homes in inventory did go down again and is well off the highs. A modest pickup in the sales rate will now translate into a larger drop in the number of months of inventory. The median price is more a function of which category ...Read More

Bernanke testimony

Mercantilism is alive and well Most telling statement when asked about what he wanted for the economy- moderate domestic consumption, more investment, and more exports to eliminate the trade deficit. (I’m looking for the transcript now to get the exact quotes.) This fits with the policy of a lower interest rates, lower ...Read More

2008-02-27 US Economic Releases

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 22) Survey n/a Actual 358.2 Prior 357.6 Revised n/a While still winter numbers, this is nonetheless looking very weak. No way to tell if it’s more than loss of market share to banks, but other winter housing numbers are also weak. MBAVREFI Index (Feb 22) Survey n/a Actual 2458.9 ...Read More

Two quick comments on inflation

Bernanke may be reminded of the reason the dual mandate includes inflation – voters don’t like inflation even more than they don’t like unemployment. As inflation rates rises into the March 18 meeting, with the FF rate at 3% the real rate falls, which the FOMC sees as ‘easier’ policy. ...Read More

Additions to yesterday’s review

Forgot to include the influence of the 8,000 lb gorilla I’ve been advancing for the last few years! Supporting GDP Pension funds adding to allocations for passive commodity strategies Sources of inflation Pension funds adding to allocations for passive commodity strategies Pension funds contributing to the $ decline by allocating funds away ...Read More