Monthly Archives: February 2008

2008-02-29 US Economic Releases

Personal Income YoY (Jan) Survey n/a Actual 4.9 Prior 5.6 Revised n/a Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income. This is one reason I lean … Continue reading

Posted in Daily | Tagged , , , , , , |

Re: GDP/claims

(an interoffice email) On Thu, Feb 28, 2008 at 9:38 AM, Karim wrote:   Housing and business capex weaker than originally estimated; exports stronger All above offset to leave gwth at 0.6% annualized in Q4 Yes, nominal growth falls to … Continue reading

Posted in Email | Tagged , , , |

Bloomberg: Calpers to Increase Commodity Assets to as Much as $7.2 Billion

And 3% of assets is on the low side. I think most were targeting 4% allocations, and now I’m hearing some are moving north of 10%, which should keep the commodities going for quite a while. Calpers to Increase Commodity … Continue reading

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TIPS 5yr 5yr fwd

One of the Fed’s favorite inflation expectation indicators continues to look to be breaking out. All pre/post ‘July 2006 pause’ progress has been reversed. TIPS 5yr 5yr fwd

Posted in Inflation | Tagged , , |

Re: Bernanke/data

(an interoffice email) Yes, and he reaffirmed that he’s using the futures prices to predict where prices are going.  He pointed to crude being at $95 in the back months and stated that translates to a forecast for prices to … Continue reading

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New home sales

Weak winter sales, but the absolute number of homes in inventory did go down again and is well off the highs. A modest pickup in the sales rate will now translate into a larger drop in the number of months … Continue reading

Posted in Housing | Tagged , |

Bernanke testimony

Mercantilism is alive and well Most telling statement when asked about what he wanted for the economy- moderate domestic consumption, more investment, and more exports to eliminate the trade deficit. (I’m looking for the transcript now to get the exact … Continue reading

Posted in Fed | Tagged , , , |

2008-02-27 US Economic Releases

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 22) Survey n/a Actual 358.2 Prior 357.6 Revised n/a While still winter numbers, this is nonetheless looking very weak. No way to tell if it’s more than loss of market share to banks, but other winter housing … Continue reading

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Two quick comments on inflation

Bernanke may be reminded of the reason the dual mandate includes inflation – voters don’t like inflation even more than they don’t like unemployment. As inflation rates rises into the March 18 meeting, with the FF rate at 3% the … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Inflation | Tagged , , , , |

Additions to yesterday’s review

Forgot to include the influence of the 8,000 lb gorilla I’ve been advancing for the last few years! Supporting GDP Pension funds adding to allocations for passive commodity strategies Sources of inflation Pension funds adding to allocations for passive commodity … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Inflation | Tagged , , , , |