From Karim:

  • GDP slows from 4.9% to 0.6%
  • Personal consumption slows from 2.8% to 2.5%
  • DGO strength in Dec shows up in modest positive in equipment and software (+3.8%)
  • Residential FI (housing) down 23.9%
  • Core PCE up 2.7% annualized for quarter and 2.1% y/y
  • Net exports add 0.4% to gwth
  • Inventories a drag by 1.25%
  • Inventory/shipment ratio still at recent highs, so unlikely that inventory drag is over yet
  • ADP gain of 130k signals upside risk to consensus 65k advance in nfp; while usually reliable, adp has also had some spectacular misses
  • In light of decline in jobs hard to get component of conference board survey and adp, will call for 90k gain in nfp Friday.
  • Pretty long period between jan and march fed meetings (next meeting march 21). So by next meeting, will have 2 nfp reports to look at as well as decent idea on Q1 gwth. Bernanke testimony likely on 2/27.