Monthly Archive:: January 2008

2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

Personal Income (Dec) Survey 0.4% Actual 0.5% Prior 0.4% Revised n/a Personal Income TABLE A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component. Personal Spending (Dec) Survey 0.1% Actual 0.2% Prior 1.1% Revised 1.0% Personal Spending TABLE OK number after last month’s large increase. ...Read More

Re: ECB funding Spanish mortgage banking system

(an interoffice email) Deep, Interesting! In the case of a bank failure, Spain still is the entity that would repay depositors. To get the funds Spain would somehow liquidate the failed bank. If the loss was large enough so that Spain couldn’t raise the funds to pay off the depositors (via both ...Read More

Claims, ECI

From Karim: True to the past 5yrs pattern, claims seem to be reverting to trend after the first few weeks of January. Right, good call! IJC climbed from 306k to 375k; the trend before the January drop was around 340-350k; this number was for MLK holiday week, so an adjustment issue here ...Read More

Monoline proposal

Fed by itself or working with AAA counterparty offers to sell supplemental bond insurance to investors. (AFLAC concept) Maybe charge a point and insure up to a price of maybe 99, or whatever combo works. Worst case the current insurers are downgraded to AA, so they should still be able to cover ...Read More

EU data

stagflation there too Actual Forecast Previous 6:00am EUR CPI y/y (p) 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 6:00am EUR Consumer Confidence -12 -10 -9 6:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% ♥ ...Read More

Poland cutting demand

This has been much the same for new members that previously had higher budget deficits. It firms the Euro and keeps unemployment higher than otherwise. [Before the euro, tight fiscal was ‘offset’ by the national CBs bought $ (I call that ‘off balance sheet deficit spending’) which supported employment and net export ...Read More

Oil comments

Iraqi Oil Minister Sees No Output Change from OPEC (Reuters) Iraq’s oil minister Hussain al-Shahristani said on Thursday there was no sign of any shortage of oil in international markets and he did not expect OPEC to change its output levels at a meeting this week. Saudis might like letting prices sag ...Read More

Valance Weekly Economic Reports: Global News Highlights

Same twin themes taking hold – weakness and inflation. Highlights: US Mixed data EU Softening data could change ECB’s inflation rhetoric JN CPI Higher on food, energy prices; Mixed data continues UK Housing Market Continued To Show Weakness AU Businesses Less Confident About Q1 economic outlook ♥ ...Read More

Saudi production up to 9.2 mbpd

Opec reported Saudi production was up to 9.2 million bpd. This means demand has increased at the current posted prices probably making further price hikes are more likely than not. Bloomberg should have updated production numbers around February 5 for confirmation. ♥ ...Read More

GDP/ADP

From Karim: GDP slows from 4.9% to 0.6% Personal consumption slows from 2.8% to 2.5% DGO strength in Dec shows up in modest positive in equipment and software (+3.8%) Residential FI (housing) down 23.9% Core PCE up 2.7% annualized for quarter and 2.1% y/y Net exports add 0.4% to gwth Inventories a ...Read More