MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 25.5% |
| Prior | -4.3% |
| Revised | -5.2% |
Mortgage banking purchase index is holding above 400 since April, and up nicely year over year. The ‘multiple application’ story is getting old.
Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Nov)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -4.7% |
| Prior | -8.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
Modest improvement- doesn’t look like a recession has started.
ADP Employment Change (Nov)
| Survey | 50K |
| Actual | 189K |
| Prior | 106K |
| Revised | 119K |
No weakness here- prelude to Friday’s employment number.
Nonfarm Productivity (3QF)
| Survey | 5.9% |
| Actual | 6.3% |
| Prior | 4.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
More real output from the same amount of labor input, further questions the deflator for Q3.
Unit Labor Costs (3QF)
| Survey | -1.2% |
| Actual | -2.0% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
As above, the q3 deflator looked suspiciously low.
This should adjust with q4 numbers.
Factory Orders (Oct)
| Survey | 0.0% |
| Actual | 0.5% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.3% |
Boring, and not worse than Fed forecasts.
ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov)
| Survey | 55.0 |
| Actual | 54.1 |
| Prior | 55.8 |
| Revised | n/a |
It’s been drifting lower with falling budget deficit, but exports propping up gdp.
Probably not any worse than Fed forecasts.
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