Monthly Archive:: December 2007

2007-12-31 US Economic Releases

Existing Home Sales (Nov) Survey 4.97M Actual 5.00M Prior 4.97M Revised 4.98K Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov) Survey 0.0% Actual 0.4% Prior -1.2% Revised -1.0% Could be bottoming. Affordability is up nicely, employment is reasonably strong, income holding up nicely. And on a per capita basis, housing is at forty year lows. ...Read More

China – Passing higher food prices to Asia

It makes political sense to use export taxes as a form of a domestic subsidy for basic necessities, and from a macro economic point of view, it a good way to express the political desire as well. A negative is this will give domestic producers an incentive to ‘cheat’ to avoid the ...Read More

A Rescue Plan for the Dollar

A Rescue Plan for the Dollar By Ronald McKinnon and Steve H. Hanke The Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2007 Central banks ended the year with a spectacular injection of liquidity to lubricate the economy. On Dec. 18, the European Central Bank alone pumped $502 billion — 130% of Switzerland’s annual GDP ...Read More

Perspective

Perspective by Steve Hanke US Mercantilist Machismo, China replaces Japan The United States has recorded a trade deficit in each year since 1975. That is a good thing – exports are real costs, imports benefits. This is not surprising because savings in the US have been less than investment. This is a ...Read More

Friday mid day

Food, crude, metals up, dollar down, inflation up all over the world, well beyond CB ‘comfort levels.’ Nov new home sales continue weak, though there are probably fewer ‘desirable’ new homes priced to sell, and with starts are down the new supply will continue to be low for a while. The December ...Read More

2007-12-28 US Economic Releases

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Dec) Survey 51.7 Actual 56.6 Prior 52.9 Revised n/a Graph Looks Ok. New Home Sales (Nov) Survey 717K Actual 647K Prior 728K Revised 711K New Home Sales MoM (Nov) Survey -1.6% Actual -9.0% Prior 1.7% Revised 1.7% Still heading south, but less impact on GDP. Also, fewer homes are ...Read More

Updated JGBi Index Ratio Table

(an interoffice email) Hi Dave, If core inflation is finally showing up in Japan that says a lot for world inflation in general! warren On Dec 28, 2007 8:12 AM, Dave Vealey wrote: > > > > With last nights stronger then expected release of core inflation in Japan > (+0.4% y/y ...Read More

Calories, Capital, Climate Spur Asian Anxiety

Higher oil prices mean lower rates from the Fed, and higher inflation rates induced by shortages mean stronger currencies abroad. Why do I have so much trouble getting aboard this paradigm, and instead keep looking for reversals? Feels a lot like watching the NASDAQ go from 3500 to 5000 a few years ...Read More

2007-12-27 US Economic Releases

MBAVPCH Index MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 21) Survey n/a Actual -7.6% Prior 19.5% Revised n/a Goes down this time every year and bounces back early January. Durable Goods Orders (Nov) Survey 2.0% Actual 0.1% Prior -0.4% Revised -0.4% Durable Goods Ex Transportation (Nov) Survey 0.5% Actual -0.7% Prior -0.7% Revised -0.9% Still ...Read More

Italian budget deficit down towards 2%

Falling deficits in general in the Eurozone due to the growth rate of GDP combined and the countercyclical tax structure. Aggregate demand from non government credit expansion (and some from exports) is supporting GDP as support from government deficit spending wanes. This can go on for quite a while as consumer leverage ...Read More